Last week, NIO announced that they have entered into a strategic agreement with Shell, the largest gasoline retailer in the world. The latest move is a boost for NIO to further establish themselves in the electric vehicle industry. The agreement includes plans to construct and operate battery charging and swapping facilities in China and Europe.
NIO and Shell plan to install 100 battery swapping stations in China by 2025 and start to construct and operate pilot stations in Europe from next year. Both companies will also explore collaboration opportunities in battery asset management, fleet management, membership system, home charging services, advanced battery charging and swapping technology development, and construction of charging facilities. William Li, Founder, Chairman, CEO of NIO commented on the agreement: ''The cooperation demonstrates Shell’s determination to accelerate the energy transition and commitment to contribute to sustainable development globally.
We believe that the cooperation between NIO and Shell will bring better services and experience to electric vehicle users worldwide.'' István Kapitány, global executive vice president of Shell Mobility said: "Decarbonization is a global challenge that requires broad-reaching, multi-faceted global solutions. This is the most exciting thing about our new partnership with NIO—the breadth of the collaboration and the value we can offer our EV customers together, both in Europe and in China. Together, we'll be working to improve every aspect of the EV experience.
This means we’ll offer Shell Recharge high-speed charging at NIO locations and make battery swap available at convenient Shell locations while also offering NIO customers our best home and business charging solutions." Shell has service stations in nearly 46,000 locations in 80 markets around the world. The company is planning to operate more than 500,000 electric vehicle charge points globally by 2025. NIO Inc.
Chart (1Y) Share price of NIO is down by 19.93% in the past year at $40.46 per share. NIO is the 12 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $63.20 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: NIO, Shell, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
By
Klavs Valters
Account Manager, GO Markets London.
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Las acciones de defensa de ASX vuelven a estar en más listas de vigilancia y según el Instituto Internacional de Investigación para la Paz de Estocolmo (SIPRI), el gasto militar mundial alcanzó aproximadamente 2.718 billones de dólares en 2024, un alza de 9.4% en términos reales.
El entorno actual de defensa de Australia se establece en la Estrategia de Defensa Nacional de 2024 y los documentos de planificación de inversiones relacionados, que describen las prioridades de financiación de la capacidad a largo plazo. Además, Canberra ha apuntado a una inversión de capacidad de 330 mil millones de dólares australianos hasta 2034, incluida la financiación adicional para combatientes de superficie, preparación, ataque de largo alcance y sistemas autónomos.
Aquí está la parte que la mayoría de la gente extraña: no todas las acciones de defensa ASX son del mismo comercio. Algunos se sientan cerca de la construcción naval. Algunos son nombres de contra-drones y algunos son operadores más pequeños y de mayor riesgo donde un contrato puede importar mucho más de lo que el mercado supone.
Estos cinco nombres no son una lista de compras, sino que son una lista de vigilancia práctica para los inversores que intentan entender dónde puede aparecer realmente el impulso de adquisiciones en el ASX.
1) Austal (ASX: ASB)
Austal es una de las empresas cotizadas en ASX más directamente expuestas al oleoducto de construcción naval de Australia, aunque la ejecución del contrato, los márgenes y el tiempo de entrega siguen siendo variables importantes.
No solo están ganando contratos aleatorios; han firmado un acuerdo legal masivo (el Acuerdo Estratégico de Construcción Naves) que los convierte en el socio oficial para la construcción de la próxima generación de buques militares de tamaño mediano de Australia en Australia Occidental.
En febrero de 2026, el gobierno dio luz verde a Austal a un proyecto de 4 mil millones de dólares. Esto no es para un solo barco, es para 8 buques “Landing Craft Heavy”. Se trata de enormes barcos de transporte (de unos 100 metros de largo) diseñados para llevar tanques pesados y equipos directamente a una playa. Pero aquí está la parte que la mayoría de la gente extraña, la construcción naval es un maratón, no un sprint.
Como puede ver en el cronograma de entrega, mientras que la construcción comienza en 2026, el barco final no se entregará hasta 2038. Para un inversionista, esto significa que Austal tiene un flujo de ingresos “garantizado” para los próximos 12 años, pero tienen que ser muy buenos en el manejo de sus costos durante ese largo período para realmente obtener ganancias.
2) Escudo del DroneShield (ASX: DRO)
Si ha visto imágenes de pequeños drones que interrumpen los campos de batalla modernos, DroneShield está construyendo parte del “interruptor de apagado”. Su enfoque es la tecnología antidrones, que incluye sistemas que detectan, interrumpen o derrotan drones utilizando guerra electrónica, sensores y herramientas dirigidas por software, en lugar de depender solo de municiones tradicionales.
A principios de 2026, DroneShield había ido más allá de la etiqueta de una prometedora start-up y se había adentrado en una fase comercial mucho más grande. Reportó ingresos para el año fiscal 2025 por 216.5 millones de dólares estadounidenses, un 276% más que en el año fiscal 2024, y dijo que inició el año fiscal 2026 con 103.5 millones de dólares de A$ en ingresos comprometidos.
Un punto que el mercado puede pasar por alto es la capa de software en el modelo. DroneShield reportó 11.6 millones de dólares estadounidenses en ingresos de Software como Servicio (SaaS) en el año fiscal 2025 y dijo que está trabajando para que SaaS represente el 30% de los ingresos dentro de cinco años. Su modelo de suscripción incluye actualizaciones de software para sistemas implementados, lo que agrega un flujo creciente de ingresos recurrentes junto con las ventas de hardware.
Entre las acciones de defensa ASX, DroneShield es una de las formas más directas de seguir el tema Counter-UAS. También es uno de los nombres donde el sentimiento puede oscilar rápidamente, porque las historias de crecimiento pueden regenerar tanto hacia arriba como hacia abajo cuando cambia el tiempo de los pedidos.
EOS construye tanto el “cerebro” como el “músculo” para plataformas militares. Es mejor conocido por los sistemas de armas remotas, que permiten a los operadores controlar torretas armadas desde el interior de vehículos protegidos, y por los sistemas láser de alta energía dirigidos a la defensa contra drones. EOS ha dicho que su rezago incondicional alcanzó alrededor de 459.1 millones de dólares estadounidenses a principios de 2026, tras una serie de victorias contractuales hasta 2025. Eso apunta a una base mucho mayor de trabajo seguro, aunque el tiempo de entrega y la conversión de ingresos siguen siendo importantes.
EOS firmó un contrato de 71.4 millones de euros, unos 125 millones de dólares australianos, con un cliente europeo para un sistema de armas láser de alta energía de 100 kilovatios. EOS dice que el sistema está diseñado para un bajo costo por disparo y puede involucrar hasta 20 drones por minuto. El gobierno australiano ha reservado 1.300 millones de dólares australianos a lo largo de 10 años para la adquisición de capacidad de contra-drones, y EOS ha revelado que formó parte de un exitoso equipo de licitación de LAND 156. Eso no garantiza ingresos futuros, pero sí soporta visibilidad a mediano plazo en un mercado al que la compañía ya se dirige.
EOS se lee como una historia de rebote, pero una que aún depende de la ejecución. La compañía se ha reorientado en torno a sistemas de armas remotas, sistemas de contra-drones y láseres, todas áreas vinculadas a un mayor gasto en defensa. La pregunta clave es si puede seguir convirtiendo el backlog y la canalización en ingresos entregados mientras mantiene la disciplina del balance.
4) Codan (ASX: CDA)
Codan a veces se deja fuera de las listas de acciones de defensa casuales porque está más diversificado. Eso puede ser un descuido. En sus resultados del primer semestre fiscal 26, Codan dijo que su negocio de Comunicaciones diseña comunicaciones de misión crítica para los mercados militares y de seguridad pública globales. Los ingresos por comunicaciones subieron 19% a 221,8 millones de dólares de A$. La compañía también dijo que DTC brindó un fuerte crecimiento de la demanda de sistemas no tripulados y de defensa, con ingresos por sistemas no tripulados que aumentaron 68% a A$73 millones. Codan dijo que aproximadamente la mitad de esos ingresos no tripulados estaban vinculados a aplicaciones de defensa operativa en zonas de conflicto.
Aquí es donde la historia se vuelve más matizada. En una canasta de acciones de defensa ASX, Codan puede ofrecer un perfil diferente, con una sensibilidad de titular menos pura, una diversificación operativa más amplia y una exposición significativa a las comunicaciones militares y los sistemas no tripulados sin ser un nombre de tema único. Esa diversificación también puede significar que las acciones no siempre se negocian como un nombre de defensa de juego puro.
HighCom se encuentra en el extremo especulativo de esta lista, y debería etiquetarse de esa manera. La compañía dice que sus dos negocios continuos son HighCom Armor, que suministra protección balística, y HighCom Technology, que suministra y mantiene pequeños y medianos sistemas aéreos no tripulados, sistemas aéreos contra-no tripulados, e ingeniería relacionada, integración, mantenimiento y apoyo logístico para la ADF y otros ejércitos regionales alineados.
En el primer trimestre del año fiscal 26, los ingresos por operaciones continuas cayeron 59% a A$10.9 millones, mientras que el EBITDA pasó a una pérdida de A$5.4 millones desde una ganancia de A$1.9 millones un año antes. HighCom también reveló 5,1 millones de dólares australianos en ingresos de HighCom Technology, incluidos 3,5 millones de dólares australianos de piezas de repuesto para sistemas aéreos no tripulados (SUAS) y 1,6 millones de dólares australianos por servicios de sostenimiento prestados al Departamento de Defensa de Australia.
Entonces sí, HighCom es una de las acciones de defensa ASX más sensibles financieramente en la junta. Pero también es el tipo de nombre más pequeño que puede mostrar cómo las adquisiciones se filtran hacia el soporte, el mantenimiento y el equipo de protección especializado.
Observaciones clave del mercado
Haga un seguimiento de los hitos del programa, no solo los titulares políticos. Las adjudicaciones de contratos, los inicios de fabricación, los cronogramas de entrega y el trabajo de mantenimiento a menudo importan más que un solo día de anuncio.
Separe la exposición pura de la exposición diversificada. DroneShield y EOS están más cerca de los temas concentrados de tecnología de defensa, mientras que Codan aporta exposición a las comunicaciones dentro de una combinación de negocios más amplia.
Vea temas de capacidad soberana en Australia. Austal y EOS están vinculados a la fabricación local, la integración y las cadenas de suministro australianas, lo que respalda el tema de capacidad soberana más amplio en este grupo.
Presta atención a los balances y conversión de efectivo. El impulso de las adquisiciones puede ser real incluso cuando el tiempo se vuelve desordenado. La última mitad de HighCom es un recordatorio de eso.
Los titulares de defensa pueden parecer inmediatos. Por lo general, las ganancias no lo son. El principal trabajo naval de Austal se extiende hasta la próxima década. Los contratos EOS se entregan a lo largo de varios años. El flujo de pedidos de DroneShield parece sólido, pero la compañía aún separa los ingresos comprometidos de una oportunidad de canalización más amplia. HighCom muestra la otra cara de la moneda. La exposición a las adquisiciones no se traduce automáticamente en una ejecución financiera fluida.
Las referencias a las acciones de defensa que cotizan en ASX son solo información general, no una recomendación para comprar, vender o mantener cualquier título o CFD. Estas acciones pueden ser altamente volátiles y son sensibles al momento de los contratos, la política gubernamental, la geopolítica, el riesgo de ejecución y las condiciones del mercado. Las expectativas de backlog, pipeline e ingresos no son garantías de performance futuro.
El 28 de febrero de 2026, cuando comenzó el ataque conjunto de Estados Unidos e Israel, los números en las pantallas comenzaron a moverse de maneras que se sentían clínicas, incluso cuando la realidad sobre el terreno con las trágicas muertes de víctimas civiles en Irán, se sentía todo menos. Los mercados, como dicen, no tienen una brújula moral, más bien tienen una máquina de pesaje y ahora mismo, están sopesando la transición de toda la economía global de un modelo “justo a tiempo” a un ciclo “justo por si acaso”.
Lo que los mercados estaban señalizando
El 2 de marzo, la cinta índice se mantuvo cautelosa mientras que la defensa subió. Históricamente, los conflictos pueden acelerar la reposición y los pedidos, pero su tamaño (y qué tan rápido) aún depende de los presupuestos, las aprobaciones y los cuellos de botella en la entrega.
Los ganadores
1. Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS)
Hanwha es uno de los nombres comercializados más activamente vinculados al tema “K-Dence”, una empresa que los mercados cada vez más se ve como un proveedor escalable en un ciclo global de artillería y municiones cada vez más estricto. Capacidad y credibilidad de entrega.
Cuando la reposición se vuelve urgente, la capacidad de producir a escala a menudo importa tanto como la plataforma misma. La demanda de exportación vinculada a sistemas como el K9 Thunder y Chunmoo ha reforzado la narrativa del flujo de pedidos duradero incluso cuando los resultados aún giran en torno a presupuestos, aprobaciones y plazos de entrega.
Cosas clave que pueden mover el sentimiento: actualizaciones de libros de pedidos, cadencia de producción y cualquier anuncio de exportación posterior.
2. Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Northrop se centró en la medida en que los inversores revalorizaron la exposición a la modernización estratégica y a los programas grandes y de larga duración. Los mercados de defensa a menudo vistos como de misión crítica pueden persistir a lo largo de los ciclos. Se trata menos de una cuarta parte y más sobre si el impulso se mantiene estable si las prioridades de modernización se mantienen en su lugar (y si los plazos cambian si no lo hacen).
Variables clave que pueden mover el sentimiento: El ritmo de adquisición, el calendario del contrato y el lenguaje de financiación relacionado con el programa.
3. Corporación RTX (RTX)
RTX volvió al centro de la cinta cuando los inversores fijaron el precio de un ciclo de reposición de interceptores y la economía de la defensa aérea de alto tempo. El desgaste es costoso y cuando las tasas de uso aumentan, los gobiernos generalmente tienen que reponer inventarios y, en muchos casos, financiar la expansión de la producción, lo que puede extender la acumulación de trabajo y aumentar la visibilidad de los ingresos.
Variables clave que pueden mover el sentimiento: Pedidos de reabastecimiento, indicadores de expansión de fabricación y rendimiento de entrega.
4. Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Lockheed llamó la atención ya que los mercados se centraron en la demanda de defensa antimisiles y la pregunta a la que se enfrenta cada mesa de compras en un entorno de alto ritmo: ¿qué tan rápido se pueden reconstruir los inventarios? Si la utilización se mantiene elevada, los ganadores tienden a ser los contratistas mejor posicionados para escalar la producción y entregar de manera confiable. La exposición de defensa antimisiles de Lockheed la mantiene estrechamente ligada a esa narrativa de reposición.
Variables clave que pueden mover el sentimiento: señales de rampa de producción, economía unitaria y cadencia de pedidos basada en el presupuesto.
5. Sistemas BAE (BA.L)
Con un atraso de 83.600 millones de libras esterlinas y un papel central en el programa submarino AUKUS, BAE se centró en el enfoque a medida que partes de Europa señalaban mayores ambiciones de gasto en defensa. La acción subió un 6.11% a un máximo de 52 semanas en medio de una rotación de “riesgo”, con los comerciantes observando los hitos de AUKUS y las adquisiciones europeas de defensa aérea y antimisiles, incluido “Sky Shield”.
Variables clave que pueden mover el sentimiento: Un catalizador potencial es cualquier claro aumento en el gasto alemán que eleve el flujo de pedidos en las unidades europeas de BAE, mientras que los riesgos clave incluyen un fuerte aumento en los rendimientos dorados del Reino Unido, una volatilidad renovada de la libra esterlina o una “amenaza de paz” la toma de ganancias.
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Los perdedores: no todas las 'existencias de guerra' suben
6. AeroEnvironment (AVAV)
AeroVironment se desplomó 18% al aire libre antes de caer 17% intradiaria tras los informes de que la Fuerza Espacial de Estados Unidos estaba reabriendo un contrato de 1.400 millones de dólares. La medida destaca cómo los procesos de adquisición y el riesgo de contratos pueden impulsar la volatilidad, incluso en entornos temáticos de apoyo.
7. Defensa Kratos (KTOS)
Kratos se sienta en el tema de los drones y las municiones que se hacen malograntes que llamó la atención a medida que se intensificaba el conflicto en Oriente Medio. Las acciones aún se vendieron después de las ganancias, lo que destaca un riesgo común del sector de defensa. Kratos anunció una gran oferta de acciones de seguimiento en el rango de US$1.200 millones a US$1.400 millones, la medida fortalece el balance y puede apoyar futuras inversiones en programas.
Para los comerciantes enfocados en narrativas de “prima de conflicto” a corto plazo, la dilución puede cambiar rápidamente la configuración. Incluso cuando las condiciones de demanda parecen favorables, el mercado puede reponer el precio de las acciones si cada accionista finalmente posee una porción más pequeña del negocio.
8. Máquinas intuitivas (LUNR)
Algunos nombres especulativos de tecnología espacial se quedaron rezagados, ya que los inversores parecían favorecer a las empresas con ingresos vinculados a la defensa más establecidos.
9. Boeing (BA)
Boeing bajó alrededor de 2.5% en la sesión. Si bien su división de defensa es significativa, su negocio comercial puede ser más sensible a la demanda de aviación, las interrupciones del espacio aéreo y los movimientos de los precios del petróleo.
10. Spirit AeroSystems (SPR)
Spirit AeroSystems sigue estrechamente ligado al ciclo mundial de producción de aeronaves como importante proveedor de aeroestructuras.Los resultados recientes mostraron pérdidas cada vez mayores a pesar del aumento de las ventas, lo que refleja aumentos en los costos de producción en los principales programas de aeronaves. Estas presiones han pesado sobre la confianza de los inversionistas en las perspectivas a corto plazo. La adquisición planificada por parte de Boeing podría, en última instancia, remodelar la posición de la compañía en la cadena de suministro, pero el riesgo de ejecución y la estabilidad de la producción siguen siendo fundamentales para la forma en que el mercado cotiZA las acciones.
Qué ver a continuación
Escalamiento vs desescalamiento: Un cambio hacia la diplomacia o las discusiones sobre el alto el fuego pueden cambiar rápidamente el sentimiento en torno a las acciones de defensa.
Petróleo y transporte marítimo: Los picos energéticos pueden endurecer las condiciones financieras y presionar a los sectores cíclicos.
Presupuestos y premios: Los movimientos de precios a veces pueden preceder a las decisiones contractuales, y la claridad llega cuando se finalizan las adjudicaciones.
Capacidad de producción: Las empresas con un historial probado de producción y entrega a menudo atraen la mayor atención de los inversores.
Restricciones de la cadena de suministro: Las tierras raras, la propulsión y la electrónica siguen siendo cuellos de botella potenciales que pueden limitar la rapidez con la que la producción escala.
La lente a más largo plazo
El conflicto iraní de 2026 es ante todo una tragedia humana. Para los mercados, también puede representar un cambio en la forma en que se prioriza el gasto en seguridad nacional dentro de los marcos fiscales. Si el gasto en defensa se mantiene elevado en un horizonte multianual, las empresas con capacidad de fabricación escalable y pilas de tecnología integradas podrían atraer la atención sostenida de los inversores. Dicho esto, los mercados se mueven en ciclos. Los temas estructurales pueden persistir, pero también pueden repreciar rápidamente cuando cambian las suposiciones. Mantenerse analítico y consciente de los riesgos sigue siendo fundamental.
Las referencias a empresas, sectores o movimientos del mercado específicos se proporcionan únicamente para comentarios generales del mercado y no constituyen una recomendación, oferta o solicitud para comprar o vender ningún producto financiero.Las reacciones del mercado a eventos geopolíticos o macroeconómicos pueden ser volátiles e impredecibles, y los resultados pueden diferir materialmente de las expectativas.
So FY24 earnings are now done and from what we can see the results have been on the whole slightly better than expected. The catch is the numbers that we've seen for early FY25 which suggested any momentum we had from 2024 may be gone. So here are 8 things that caught our attention from the earnings season just completed.
Resilient Economy and Earnings Performance Resilience surprises remain: The Australian economy has shown remarkable resilience despite higher inflation and overall global pessimism. The resilience was reflected in the ASX 300, which closed the reporting season with a net earnings beat of 3 percentage points - a solid beat of the Street's consensus. This beat was primarily driven by better-than-expected margins, indicating that companies are effectively managing cost pressures through flexes in wages, inventories and nonessential costs.
The small guy is falling by wayside: However, the reporting outside of the ASX 300 paints a completely different picture. Over 53 per cent of firms missed estimates, size cost efficiencies and other methods larger firms can take were unable to be matched by their smaller counterparts. The fall in the ex-ASX 300 stocks was probably missed by most as it represents a small fraction of the ASX.
But nonetheless it's important to highlight as it's likely that what was seen in FY24 in small cap stocks will probably spread up into the larger market. Season on season slowdown is gaining momentum Smaller Beats what also caught our attention is the three-percentage point beat of this earnings season is 4 percentage points less than the beat in February which saw a seven-percentage point upside. That trend has been like this now for three consecutive halves and it's probable it will continue into the first half of FY25.
The current outlook from the reporting season is a slowing cycle, reducing the likelihood of positive economic surprises and earnings upgrades. Dividend Trends Going Oprah - Dividend Surprises: Reporting season ended with dividend surprises that were more aligned with earnings surprises, with a modest DPS (Dividends Per Share) beat of 2 percentage points. This marked a significant improvement from the initial weeks of the reporting season when conservative payout strategies led to more dividend misses.
The stronger dividends toward the end of the season signal some confidence in the future outlook despite conservative guidance. However, firms that did have banked franking credits or capital in the bank from previous periods they went Oprah and handed out ‘special dividends’ like confetti. While this was met with shareholder glee, it does also suggest that firms cannot see opportunity to deploy this capital in the current conditions.
That reenforces the views from point 2. Winners and Losers - Performance Growth Stocks Outperform: Growth stocks emerged as the clear winners of the reporting season, with a net beat of 30 percentage points. This performance was driven by strong margin surprises and the best free cash flow (FCF) surprise among any group.
However, there was a slight miss on sales, which was more than offset by higher margins. Sectors like Technology and Health were key contributors to the outperformance of Growth stocks. Stand out performers were the likes of SQ2, HUB, and TPW.
Globally-exposed Cyclicals Underperform: Global Cyclicals were the most disappointing, led by falling margins and sales misses. The earnings misses were attributed to slowing global growth and the rising Australian Dollar. Despite these challenges, Global Cyclicals did follow the dividend trend surprised to the upside.
Contrarian view might be to consider Global Cyclicals with the possibility the AUD begins to fade on RBA rate cuts in 2025. Mixed Results in Other Sectors: Resources: Ended the season with an equal number of beats and misses. Margins were slightly better than expected, and there was a positive cash flow surprise for some companies.
However, the sector faced significant downgrades, with FY25 earnings now expected to fall by 3.2 per cent. Industrials: Delivered growth with a nine per cent upside in EPS increases, although slightly below expectations. Defensives drove most of this growth, insurers however such as QBE, SUN, and HLI were drags.
Banks: Banks received net upgrades for FY25 earnings due to delayed rate cuts and lower-than-expected bad debts. However, earnings are still forecasted to fall by around 3 per cent in FY25. Defensives: Had a challenging reporting season, with net misses on margins.
Several major defensive stocks missed expectations and faced downgrades for FY25, which led to negative share price reactions. Future Gazing - Guidance and Earnings Outlook Vigilant Guidance has caused downgrades: As expected, many companies used the reporting season to reset earnings expectations. About 40 per cent in fact provided forecasts below consensus expectations, which in turn led to earnings downgrades for FY25 from the Street.
This cautious approach reflects the uncertainty in the economic environment and the potential for slower growth ahead, which was reflected in the FY24 numbers. Flat Earnings Forecast for FY25: The initial expectation of approximately 10 per cent earnings growth for FY25 has completely evaporated to just 0.1 per cent growth (yes, you read that correctly). This revision includes adjustments for the treatment of CDIs like NEM, which reduced earnings by 2.8 percentage point, and negative revisions in response to weaker-than-expected results, guidance, and lower commodity prices.
Resources were particularly impacted, with a 7.7 percentage point downgrade, leading to a forecasted earnings decline of 2.8 percent for the sector. Gazing into FY26: Early projections for FY26 suggest a 1.3 percent decline in earnings, driven by the expected declines in Resources and Banks due to net interest margins and commodity prices. However, Industrials are currently projected to deliver a 10.4 percent EPS growth, would argue this seems optimistic given the slowing economic cycle.
The Consensus Downgrades to 2025 Earnings: The consensus for ASX 300 earnings in 2025 was downgraded by 3 per cent during the reporting season. This reflects a broad range of negative revisions, with 23 percent of stocks facing downgrades. Biggest losers were sectors like Energy, Media, Utilities, Mining, Health, and Capital Goods all saw significant consensus downgrades, with Media particularly facing downgrades as budgets are slashed in half.
Flip side Tech, Telecom, Banks, and Financial Services, saw aggregate earnings upgrades. Notably, 78 percent of the banking sector received upgrades, reflecting some resilience in this group. Cash Flow and Margin Surprises Positive Cash Flow: Operating cash flow was a positive surprise, with 2 percentage point increase for Industrial and Resource stocks reporting cash flow at least 10 per cent above expectations.
The main drivers of this cash flow surprise were lower-than-expected tax and interest costs, along with positive EBITDA margin surprises. Capex: There were slightly more companies with higher-than-expected capex, but the impact on overall Free Cash Flow (FCF) was modest. Significant positive FCF surprises were seen in companies like TLS, QAN, and BHP, while WES, CSL, and WOW had negative surprises.
Final nuts and bolts Seasonal Downgrade Patterns: The peak in downgrades typically occurs during the full-year reporting season, so the significant downgrades seen in August are not necessarily a negative signal for the market. As the year progresses, the pace of downgrades may slow, and there could be some positive guidance surprises during the 2024 AGM season. However, with a slowing economic cycle, the likelihood of positive surprises is lower compared to 2023.
Overall, the reporting season highlighted the resilience of the Australian economy and the challenges facing certain sectors. While Growth stocks outperformed, the outlook for FY25 remains cautious with flat earnings growth and sector-specific headwinds. Investors will need to navigate a mixed landscape with potential opportunities in contrarian plays like Global Cyclicals, but also be mindful of the broader economic uncertainties.
Hemos pasado las tres últimas entregas de esta serie mapeando la fontanería de la economía 2026: los bancos que anclan la capital, las utilidades que suministran los electrones, y los fabricantes de chips construyendo el silicio. A medida que la temporada de reportajes de abril avanza hacia su acto final, la atención se desplaza hacia la puerta principal.
Meta, Amazon y Apple se sientan en el punto en el que la creación de IA se encuentra con los consumidores y negocios cotidianos.
Por qué el retorno de la inversión es ahora el foco
Una dura división, a veces llamada la “Gran Dispersión”, se está abriendo entre las empresas que habilitan la IA y las empresas que la monetizan. Meta y Amazon están en el centro de un ciclo masivo de gasto de capital (capex), frente a un gasto estimado en toda la industria de aproximadamente 650 mil millones de dólares a 700 mil millones de dólares en 2026.
Es por eso que las métricas de retorno de la inversión (ROI) están frente a la mente.
Es Meta ¿La orientación de anuncios impulsada por la IA es lo suficientemente fuerte como para justificar su programa de gastos?
Es Amazon Web Services (AWS) ¿vuelve a acelerar lo suficientemente rápido como para soportar el empuje de silicio personalizado?
Can Apple mantener su valoración premium al mostrar que el ciclo del iPhone 17 es real, incluso en un mercado chino más difícil?
En 2026, la pregunta ya no es solo quién puede construir los data centers. Es quien puede convertir esas inversiones en ganancias sustentables y de alto margen. Con los mercados energéticos más tranquilos tras el reciente alto el fuego, las valoraciones tecnológicas han tenido cierto margen para respirar. Ahora el mercado quiere evidencia.
IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 20 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
$META| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Meta Platforms, Inc.
NASDAQ | Technology/Advertising | 29 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.69
Consensus Revenue
US$55.4bn
AUSTRALIA/ASIA30 Apr | 6:05 am
US/LATAM29 Apr | 4:05 pm
Market intelligence: $META
Analysis: Meta price drivers and scenarios
Ad click improvement (est.)
+3–5%
From AI-driven targeting
2026 capex estimate
~US$135bn
Market estimate range
Silicon strategy
MTIA 2nm
Broadcom co-development
Strategy note
What is MTIA 2nm? This is Meta's "home-grown" AI chip. The 2nm refers to ultra-advanced, high-efficiency technology. By building their own silicon with Broadcom, Meta aims to slash their massive electricity bills and end their total reliance on buying expensive NVIDIA hardware. If this works, it protects Meta's profit margins even if they keep spending billions on AI.
AVG
LOW US$6.30AVG US$6.69HIGH US$7.10
Meta has moved from its "Year of Efficiency" into what CEO Mark Zuckerberg calls the "Era of Personal Superintelligence". By April 2026, AI appears to have sharpened the company’s core advertising engine, with some reports suggesting ad click rates rose by around 3% to 5%. But the bigger strategic issue is Meta’s multi-year Broadcom partnership to co-develop custom 2nm MTIA chips, with the aim of reducing reliance on NVIDIA and lowering operating costs over time. The risk is that Meta could beat on earnings and still disappoint if management points to higher spending and a longer payoff period. The real question is whether efficiency gains are keeping pace with the capital expenditure (capex) bill.
Call focus and key signals
The Avocado AI model
Watch for ad click improvements tied to the "Avocado" AI model deployment, currently estimated to be lifting rates by up to 5%.
Signal: Monetisation efficiency
MTIA rollout status
Updates on the custom 2nm MTIA chip rollout with Broadcom will indicate Meta's long term cost structure flexibility.
Watch: Infrastructure independence
Reality Labs losses
Evidence of Reality Labs loss stabilisation would reduce the persistent drag on the overall earnings story.
Watch: Operating loss trend
Capex vs efficiency
The real question for investors is whether efficiency gains are keeping pace with the significant capex bill.
Signal: Spending productivity
Sentiment analysis: Meta Platforms
Interactive scenario analysis: $META
Select earnings outcome
Productive cycle
Spending cycle becomes productive
EPS above US$7.10, double-digit ad growth, and clear early efficiency gains from MTIA. The market may interpret that as a sign the spending cycle is becoming more productive rather than simply more expensive.
EPS level
Above US$7.10
Ad growth
Double digit
Efficiency
MTIA gains
Reaction
Strong rally
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Expanded Coverage
Beyond the chipmakers
As the "show me the money" year unfolds, discover how AI demand is impacting Tesla, NextEra, and Exxon.
Amazon is no longer just a retail story. It is increasingly a cloud and advertising business, with a thin-margin logistics network attached. In 2026, the narrative is centred on what reports have described as a roughly US$200 billion capex plan, aimed largely at building out AWS’s AI infrastructure.
$AMZN| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Amazon.com, Inc.
NASDAQ | Technology/Retail | 29 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.69
Consensus Revenue
~US$177.7bn
AU/ASIA30 Apr | 6:00 am
US/LATAM29 Apr | 4:00 pm
Market Intelligence: $AMZN
Analysis: Amazon price drivers and scenarios
AWS growth threshold
20% YoY
Market floor expectation
2026 Capex plan (est.)
~US$200bn
Largely AWS AI infrastructure
Custom silicon
Trainium 3 and 4
In-house AI chip pipeline
AVG
LOW US$1.50AVG US$1.69HIGH US$1.90
Amazon is no longer primarily a retail story. In 2026, the narrative centres on approximately US$200 billion in planned capex, directed largely at building out AWS's AI infrastructure. That is an extraordinary commitment, and the market is watching closely to see whether the returns are following. One metric matters most: AWS growth.
Key signals to watch
AWS growth rate
Anything materially below 20% YoY could reinforce the bear case that spending is running well ahead of returns.
Watch: AWS growth vs 20% floor
Trainium supply commitments
Early supply commitments for Trainium 3 and 4 would signal how quickly the transition to in-house chips is progressing.
Watch: Trainium 3 and 4 progress
Retail margins under tariff pressure
Management commentary on whether Section 122 tariff costs are being absorbed or passed on is vital for the non-AWS story.
Watch: Retail operating margin
Advertising segment momentum
Sustained growth here provides a high-margin earnings cushion if retail margins are squeezed by logistics or tariffs.
Watch: Advertising revenue growth
Sentiment Analysis · Amazon.com Inc.
Interactive scenario analysis: $AMZN
Select earnings outcome
Investment Landing
Spending cycle lands well
EPS above US$1.90 and AWS growth above 24% with firmer retail margins. The market interprets this as proof the massive investment cycle is delivering efficient returns.
EPS Level
Above US$1.90
AWS Signal
Above 24%
Retail Margin
Firmer
Reaction
Positive rally
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Apple: quality still needs proof
Apple has looked like the defensive favourite in hardware, helped by record free cash flow (FCF) of US$43.64 billion and the strength of its Services segment. But the latest debate is whether that defensive status can turn back into growth. Third-party shipment data has indicated a roughly 20% rise in China for iPhone 17, challenging the idea that the market is already mature.
$AAPL| Q2 FY2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Apple Inc.
NASDAQ | Consumer Technology | 30 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.91
Consensus Revenue
~US$109.0bn
AU/ASIA01 May | 6:30 am
US/LATAM30 Apr | 4:30 pm
Market intelligence: $AAPL
Analysis: Apple price drivers and scenarios
Free cash flow (FCF)
US$43.6bn
Record, prior period
Services run-rate target
~US$30bn
Quarterly revenue approach
China iPhone 17 shipments
+~20%
Third-party data estimate
AVG
LOW US$1.70AVG US$1.91HIGH US$1.94
Apple is still widely seen as a quality print, but expectations are higher now. Margin resilience alone is no longer enough. The market wants evidence that Apple Intelligence, the company’s on-device AI platform, can extend the upgrade cycle and support more recurring, high-margin Services revenue over time.
Key signals to watch
iPhone 17 demand in China
China remains the most closely watched variable. Third-party data has pointed to growth of around 20%, but earnings will provide the first company-sourced data point.
Watch: China revenue growth
Services revenue trajectory
Services is approaching a US$30 billion quarterly run rate and carries structurally higher margins. Further acceleration reduces reliance on iPhone cycle volatility.
Watch: Services revenue vs US$30bn
Apple Intelligence rollout
On-device AI is a key upgrade catalyst. Management commentary on adoption, features and international timing will shape refresh cycle expectations.
Watch: Apple intelligence milestones
Gross margin
Apple guided to a 48% to 49% range. Holding near the top signals product mix strength. A result below 48% raises questions about cost pressure.
Watch: Gross margin vs 48% to 49%
Sentiment analysis: Apple Inc.
Interactive scenario analysis: $AAPL
Select report outcome
Growth support
Support for growth narrative
EPS above US$1.94, firmer China iPhone 17 data and gross margin above 49%. The market may interpret that as support for the higher-quality growth narrative and validate the thesis that Apple Intelligence is beginning to drive a meaningful upgrade cycle.
EPS level
Above US$1.94
China demand
Firmer
Gross margin
Above 49%
Reaction
Bullish move
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Thematic risks
What could shift the picture
Three risks could change the narrative, regardless of how the numbers print.
1. Spending without visible returns
Meta and Amazon are both running enormous capex programmes, with payoff periods that stretch well beyond a single quarter. If either company delivers an in line or weaker result while also lifting full year spending guidance, the market may start to see the gap between investment and return as a structural issue rather than a temporary one. That would matter for the sector as a whole, not just for one stock.
2. China as a variable, not a constant
Apple's China story has shown some resilience in third party data, but it remains sensitive to trade policy, consumer confidence and local competition. Any signal from management that demand is softening faster than expected, or that local rivals are gaining meaningful share in the mid range and premium segments, could reset the earnings growth outlook more quickly than consensus currently assumes.
3. The K-shaped consumer backdrop
In a market where higher income consumers are holding up while lower income groups remain under pressure, ad spending patterns and device upgrade cycles can diverge sharply from headline averages. If Meta's ad pricing weakens because smaller businesses pull back, or if Apple's upgrade cycle is concentrated within a narrower demographic, results could disappoint even with broadly stable macro conditions.
Note: These thematic risks may influence sector wide risk appetite independently of headline EPS results.
The bottom line
The 2026 reality check
As this earnings season moves towards its close, the story is shifting away from survival and towards operational execution in the intelligence era.
$META
AI ad efficiency is facing its biggest test yet. Can the Broadcom silicon bet start to show up in margins?
$AMZN
AWS re-acceleration remains the critical signal. A US$200 billion capex push needs a growth rate to match.
$AAPL
Quality still needs proof. Apple Intelligence has to show it can extend the upgrade cycle, not just refresh it.
For Meta, Amazon and Apple, the test is whether heavy investment in silicon, models and infrastructure is turning into measurable cash flow and durable margins. In a more uneven economy, the market appears to be rewarding companies that can show real demand and clearer monetisation. The earnings numbers matter, but management commentary on the return on that investment may matter more.
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La temporada de ganancias de abril en Estados Unidos está aterrizando en un mercado que quiere algo más que una buena historia. JP Morgan ya ha marcado un listón alto con un fuerte resultado, y ahora la atención se está desplazando hacia la sala de máquinas del S&P 500: infraestructura de IA donde tres empresas están en el centro de esa historia.
Por qué esta ventana de ganancias es importante para la IA
Microsoft, Alphabet y NVIDIA no son solo participantes en el ciclo de IA, están construyendo la arquitectura física y de software de la que dependen otras empresas: los chips, las regiones de la nube, los modelos y las herramientas. Si este gasto va a entregar rendimientos, las primeras señales pueden comenzar a mostrarse en sus resultados trimestrales durante las próximas semanas.
Cada empresa representa una prueba diferente.
Microsoft: Si la adopción de IA empresarial se está traduciendo en una expansión de ingresos y márgenes
Alfabeto: Ya sea poseer la pila completa, desde chips hasta la nube y la distribución, es una ventaja duradera o simplemente una posición costosa para defender
NVIDIA: Si el ciclo de hardware aún se mantiene, acelera o comienza a nivelarse
En 2026, la pregunta ya no es si la inversión en IA está sucediendo, los compromisos de capital son sustanciales y ya se han declarado públicamente. La pregunta es si ese gasto está generando retornos lo suficientemente rápido como para justificar la escala de esas apuestas.
IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 16 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
$MSFT| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Microsoft Corporation
NASDAQ | Technology | 29 Apr 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$4.04
Consensus Revenue
US$81.40bn
AU/ASIA30 Apr | 6:05 am
US/LATAM29 Apr | 4:05 pm
Market Intelligence: $MSFT
Analysis: Microsoft price drivers and scenarios
Azure Growth Target
37-38%
Constant currency projection
AI Contribution
+6-8 pts
Azure revenue from AI services
FY26 Capex
US$146bn
Total infrastructure spending
AVG
LOW US$3.86AVG US$4.04HIGH US$4.14
Microsoft is being tested on a specific question: can it turn heavy AI spending into margin expansion? A result above US$4.14 could ease concerns over "capex fatigue" and demonstrate whether Azure growth is re-accelerating alongside enterprise AI adoption.
Factors that could move the markets
Azure growth rate
Watch if constant-currency growth re-accelerates above 39%, suggesting AI workloads are filling new capacity rather than sitting idle.
Signal: Capacity Utilisation
Workplace agent adoption
The shift to autonomous agents is central. Clear enterprise uptake in Dynamics 365 supports the high-tier subscription thesis.
Signal: Software Monetisation
Maia 200 cost savings
If the in-house AI chip is lowering inference costs at production levels, gross margins may start to recover from recent compression.
Watch: Gross Margin Recovery
Regulatory backdrop
Ongoing scrutiny of cloud bundling practices remains a potential headwind; management commentary here is vital for the long-term view.
Watch: Bundling Compliance
Sentiment Analysis · Microsoft Corp.
Interactive scenario analysis: $MSFT
Select earnings outcome
AI Scaling Proof
Strong result, backed by real AI progress
EPS above US$4.14 and Azure re-acceleration above 39% could support the view that AI spending is starting to translate into commercial returns. Workplace Agents show measurable ROI and FY26 guidance is raised.
EPS Outcome
Above US$4.14
Cloud Signal
Accelerating
Guidance
Raised
Possible reaction
Strong rally
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Expanded Coverage
Beyond the chipmakers
As the "show me the money" year unfolds, discover how AI demand is impacting Tesla, NextEra, and Exxon.
Alphabet has transformed from a search business into a sprawling AI infrastructure play, and this result will test whether that transformation is delivering. The US$185 billion capex forecast for 2026 is extraordinary, close to double last year's spending.
EPS is expected to decline slightly year on year, precisely because that infrastructure spending is consuming capital. The question is whether Google Cloud's growth is fast enough to show a credible path back to margin recovery, and whether Ironwood, the seventh-generation custom AI chip, is proving its cost-per-query advantage at scale.
$GOOGL| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Alphabet Inc.
NASDAQ | Technology | 29 Apr 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$2.64
Consensus Revenue
US$92.14bn
AU/ASIA30 Apr | 6:30 am
US/LATAM29 Apr | 4:30 pm
Market Intelligence: $GOOGL
Analysis: Alphabet price drivers and scenarios
Cloud growth
48% YoY
Compared with last quarter
Ironwood TPU
10x peak
Vs previous-generation chip
2026 Capex
US$185bn
Double last year's spending
AVG
LOW US$2.50AVG US$2.64HIGH US$2.80
Alphabet has shifted to being viewed as a broader AI infrastructure play. The question is whether Cloud growth can support a path back to margin recovery while the massive US$185bn infrastructure buildout absorbs capital.
Factors that could move the markets
Google Cloud momentum
Markets are watching if the 48% growth rate holds, specifically among customers using Ironwood TPUs for large-scale AI.
Signal: Enterprise AI Adoption
Search & AI overview
If compute-intensive AI summaries are monetising through ads, it supports core search economics in the AI era.
Focus: Search Economics
Capex & margin trajectory
With free cash flow under pressure from US$185bn capex, markets want to know when infrastructure investment will moderate.
Watch: Spending Ceiling
DOJ antitrust risk
Management commentary on the legal timeline for Chrome or Android divestiture appeals will influence how risk is priced.
Watch: Regulatory Remedies
Sentiment Analysis · Alphabet Inc.
Interactive scenario analysis: $GOOGL
Select earnings outcome
Efficiency Proof
Ironwood efficiency drives upside
EPS above US$2.80 and cloud growth above 45% suggest Ironwood is cutting costs and strengthening Google’s advantage faster than expected.
EPS outcome
Above US$2.80
Cloud Signal
Strong growth
Waymo
Accelerating
Reaction
Sentiment improves
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
NVIDIA: the hardware cycle read through
NVIDIA is no longer simply a chip company. It has become what analysts now describe as the central bank of compute, the entity whose product determines how much AI capacity the world can actually deploy.
The upcoming Q1 FY2027 result will test whether the new Vera Rubin R100 GPU architecture, which entered mass production ahead of schedule, is already contributing to revenue, and whether NVIDIA can sustain gross margins above 75% as inference, rather than training, becomes the dominant workload. Inference is more competitive and more price-sensitive than training, so margin resilience here matters.
$NVDA| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
NVIDIA Corporation
NASDAQ | Semiconductors | 20 May 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.70
Consensus Revenue
US$78.42bn
AU/ASIA21 May | 6:30 am
US/LATAM20 May | 4:30 pm
Market Intelligence: $NVDA
Analysis: NVIDIA price drivers and scenarios
Revenue growth
73% YoY
Last quarter benchmark
Data centre share
91%+
Share of total revenue
Rubin R100
In production
Mass production began April 2026
AVG
LOW US$76bnAVG US$78bnHIGH US$81bn+
NVIDIA’s outlook depends on whether Rubin R100 can keep gross margins above 75% as inference becomes a bigger part of demand. Because inference is more price-sensitive than training, margins are the key test.
Factors that could move the markets
Rubin ramp-up
Watch whether Rubin production can scale smoothly without disrupting the Blackwell transition.
Signal: supply chain continuity
Inference margins
The key test is whether NVIDIA can keep gross margins above 75% as inference revenue grows.
Signal: pricing power holds up
Sovereign AI demand
Government-backed investment in Europe and the Middle East could broaden the base beyond hyperscalers.
Signal: market expansion
CUDA regulatory risk
Any US or European scrutiny of NVIDIA’s software advantage could move the stock regardless of the revenue result.
Signal: software moat under review
Sentiment Analysis · NVIDIA Corp.
Interactive scenario analysis: $NVDA
Select earnings outcome
Rubin ramp supports growth
Rubin ramp supports growth
Revenue above US$81 billion may suggest the Rubin ramp is tracking ahead of expectations. That could support the view that AI demand is broadening into sovereign AI and enterprise markets, helping extend visibility into 2027.
Revenue Outcome
Above US$81bn
Gross Margin
Above 75%
Workload
Inference strong
Reaction
Positive read-through
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Thematic Risks
What could shift the picture
Three risks could change the narrative regardless of how the numbers print. Each one is worth understanding before the results land.
Capex fatigue
If both Microsoft and Alphabet report in line or below expectations while reaffirming enormous spending plans, the market may start pricing the risk that AI monetisation is slower than the spending implies. That is not a stock-specific concern. It would be a broader de-rating event, affecting the valuations of companies across the technology sector.
Regulatory escalation
The FTC investigation into Microsoft, the DOJ case against Alphabet, and emerging EU scrutiny of NVIDIA's CUDA software ecosystem are all active. A material legal development before the earnings calls could overshadow the financial results entirely. Regulatory risk in this sector is not theoretical. It is live and moving.
Competition from custom silicon
Microsoft's Maia 200 chip, Alphabet's Ironwood TPU, Amazon's Trainium and Meta's custom accelerators are all reducing how much the large cloud companies depend on NVIDIA hardware. If any of these companies signals a meaningful shift in its GPU procurement plans, that could create uncertainty around NVIDIA's forward order book.
Note: These systemic risks represent thematic pivots that may influence risk appetite independently of headline EPS beats.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 reality check
Microsoft and Alphabet report on the same evening, 29 April. NVIDIA follows in late May. Together, they offer the clearest read yet on whether the AI infrastructure buildout is generating returns fast enough to justify the extraordinary scale of capital being committed.
$MSFT
AI spend is shifting from cost to competitive advantage. The question is whether margins can follow.
$GOOGL
Vertical integration from chips to search to cloud may prove to be a moat, or an expensive position to defend.
$NVDA
This is the pulse of the AI hardware cycle, and a test of whether Rubin can keep the supercycle alive into 2027.
Taken together, they offer a read on a market that looks more physical, more capital-intensive and, for many traders, more real.
Your next earnings setup starts here
Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.
La temporada de ganancias de abril en Estados Unidos está aterrizando en un mercado que quiere algo más que una buena historia. Como destacó GO Markets en su reciente lista de seguimiento de ganancias de defensa, este periodo sobre el que se informa llega después de un cambio más amplio en lo que a los mercados les importa. Ya no se trata solo de crecer a cualquier costo. Los comerciantes quieren saber qué dicen los números debajo de la superficie.
Por qué son importantes estos 3 nombres
En esta parte del mercado, eso pone en foco a Tesla, Nextera Energy y Exxon Mobil. Cada uno ofrece una lectura diferente sobre un tema clave 2026: autonomía, demanda de electricidad y riesgo de suministro de petróleo.
Tesla: Se está juzgando sobre si la autonomía y la energía pueden soportar la siguiente etapa de crecimiento
Siguiente A: Ofrece una ventana a la creciente demanda de energía y la infraestructura necesaria para satisfacerla
Exxon Movil: Se encuentra en el centro de la historia de la seguridad del petróleo y la energía, ya que los riesgos de suministro se mantienen en el foco
Tomados en conjunto, estos tres nombres ayudan a explicar dónde puede estar cambiando la atención. La pregunta ya no es solo quién tiene la narrativa más fuerte, más bien, quién puede mostrar demanda real, márgenes más firmes y ejecución que se sostenga en un telón de fondo más complicado.
En 2026, la demanda de energía de IA está empujando a los servicios públicos, el almacenamiento y la capacidad de la red a un enfoque más nítido, mientras que al mismo tiempo, el riesgo del suministro de petróleo ha devuelto la seguridad energética a la conversación del mercado.
IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 14 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
$TSLA| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Tesla Inc.
NASDAQ | Consumer Discretionary | 22 Apr 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$0.41
Consensus Revenue
US$22.26bn
AU/ASIA23 Apr | 6:05 am
US/LATAM22 Apr | 4:05 pm
Market Intelligence: $TSLA
Analysis: Tesla price drivers and scenarios
Auto Gross Margin
17-19%
Target floor, excl. credits
Megapack Growth
+25% YoY
Projected energy deployment
Analyst range
US$0.32-0.48
EPS estimate range
AVG
LOW US$0.32AVG US$0.41HIGH US$0.48
The US$0.16 analyst range shows there is still a lot of uncertainty. The main question is how weaker vehicle deliveries compare with stronger, higher-margin energy storage contributions. A result above US$0.48 would suggest the autonomy and battery story is improving faster than the bear case expects.
Key factors that could move the result
Automotive gross margin
This is the most important number for Tesla’s core business. Markets want to see whether price cuts have started to settle, or whether margins are still under pressure.
Benchmark: 17% (excluding credits)
Energy storage (Megapacks)
This is the more durable growth story. Strong Megapack deployment and battery margins could help offset weaker vehicle deliveries
Focus: Storage growth versus pressure in the auto business
Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi
This is the main narrative driver. Markets will watch for updates on FSD adoption and the robotaxi timeline to judge whether the move towards “physical AI” is becoming more credible.
Watch: Timing for next-generation autonomy technology
Regulatory credits
This is a quality check on the result. If EPS is boosted too much by credit sales, some traders may see the beat as less durable.
Watch: How much credit sales contribute to final EPS
Trade Execution: $TSLA
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$0.45, energy margins at 20%+ | FSD take rates rising
The result clears the top-tier analyst range. Commentary focuses on FSD scaling and Megapack production ramps rather than vehicle discounting. FY26 guidance is reaffirmed.
Possible reaction: stronger momentum, with short covering adding support
Base case
EPS between US$0.38 and US$0.43, auto margins stable | Near target
The result is close to expectations, but there is no major surprise from the energy business. The market stays focused on the robotaxi timeline. The initial move may be limited if the product mix looks unchanged.
Possible reaction: range-bound trading or a muted early response
Bear case
EPS below US$0.35, auto margins drop below 16% | Signs of FSD delays
The result misses even cautious expectations. Rising inventory suggests more discounting may be needed. The market starts to question whether the level of spending on AI and autonomy is too high.
Possible reaction: rotation out of the stock, especially if growth confidence weakens
Sentiment Analysis · Tesla Inc.
Interactive scenario analysis: $TSLA
Select earnings outcome
Growth momentum
Strong result, helped by energy and FSD
FSD and Energy do better than expected, which helps offset weaker car deliveries. Management gives the market more confidence that autonomy is getting closer to real revenue. Auto margins staying above 17% would also help.
EPS Outcome
Above US$0.45
Energy Signal
On track
Margins
At or above 17%
Possible reaction
Strong rally
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 14 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Expanded Coverage
AI isn’t the only trade this earnings season.
From data centres to defence, see why JPMorgan and the big defence players are on our radar for March.
If Tesla is the market’s test of whether physical AI can become a business, NextEra is a test of whether the power buildout behind AI is starting to show up more clearly in utility economics.
That is what makes the shift from Tesla to NextEra interesting: one is about ambition and platform narrative and the other is about power, contracts, infrastructure and return on capital.
$NEE| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
NextEra Energy, Inc.
NYSE | Utilities | 23 Apr 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$0.91
Consensus Revenue
US$7.17bn
AU/ASIA23 Apr | 9:35 pm
US/LATAM23 Apr | 7:35 am
Market Intelligence: $NEE
Analysis: NEE price drivers and scenarios
Backlog
About 29.8 GW
Total Energy Resources backlog
Growth target
8%+ a year
Adjusted EPS growth through 2032
Analyst range
US$0.88-1.06
Q1 EPS estimate range
AVG
LOW US$0.88AVG US$0.92HIGH US$1.06
The main question is simple: can NextEra turn big growth plans into real progress? Traders want to see whether rising power demand, especially from AI, is starting to show up in results, contracts and project execution.
Trade Execution: $NEE
Key signals to watch
Contract conversion
One of the biggest proof points. Markets want to see whether strong customer interest is turning into signed agreements and clearer revenue visibility.
Signal: More large-load agreements signed
Natural gas and power buildout
Traders will watch for clearer milestones on the approved gas buildout and capacity plan to meet rising power demand.
Focus: Buildout timeline and project execution
Funding and capital discipline
Investors will want to know whether funding plans look manageable after the recent equity raise and the impact of financing costs.
Watch: Funding risk and capital pressure
Rate base and earnings outlook
Markets look for healthy rate-base growth and signs that rising demand can support long-term earnings growth.
Focus: Guidance, rate-base growth and EPS visibility
Sentiment Analysis · NextEra Energy
Interactive scenario analysis: $NEE
Select earnings outcome
Upside momentum
Strong result, backed by real progress
EPS comes in above US$1.06. Management shows better contract progress and clearer steps on new power projects. That would suggest the backlog is moving closer to real revenue.
EPS Outcome
Above US$1.06
Infrastructure Signal
More contracts signed
Possible reaction
Sentiment improves
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 14 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
From power to oil
If NextEra reflects the electricity side of the real economy story, Exxon Mobil reflects the fuel side. That matters in a market where supply risk can still reset inflation expectations, shift sector leadership and change how traders think about defensiveness.
$XOM| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Exxon Mobil Corporation
NYSE | Energy | 1 May 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.66
Consensus Revenue
US$82.47bn
AU/ASIA1 May | 8:30 pm
US/LATAM1 May | 6:30 am
Market Intelligence: $XOM
Analysis: XOM price drivers and scenarios
Liquids pricing effect
US$1.9-2.3bn
Support from stronger oil prices
Energy products timing
-US$3.3-4.1bn
Downstream timing drag
Analyst range
US$1.60-$1.85
Q1 EPS estimate range
AVG
LOW US$1.60AVG US$1.66HIGH US$1.85
The key question for Exxon Mobil is straightforward: can stronger oil and gas pricing offset weaker volumes and downstream pressure? For traders, this is a test of earnings quality, if prices do the lifting, the market may still want proof that operations are holding up.
Trade Execution: $XOM
Key signals to watch
Realised pricing
Markets want to see whether stronger oil and gas prices were enough to offset weaker production volumes.
Signal: Price strength vs Volume pressure
Timing and quality
Commentary on whether the downstream timing drag is temporary or a sign of deeper margin pressure.
Focus: Accounting effect vs Headwind
Guyana and Upstream
Markets want steady production growth from Guyana to keep the long-term story intact.
Watch: Delivery and Resilience
Refining margins
Even if crude helps, weaker refining or chemicals performance could limit the overall upside.
Focus: Downstream offset levels
Sentiment Analysis · Exxon Mobil
Interactive scenario analysis: $XOM
Select earnings outcome
Pricing offsets disruption
Strong result, with pricing support doing enough
EPS above US$1.85. Higher realised pricing more than offsets weaker volumes, and management suggests timing drag was less severe than expected. Upstream updates stay constructive.
EPS Outcome
Above US$1.85
Timing Impact
Smaller than feared
Possible reaction
Sentiment improves
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates from company investor relations calendars; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers as at 14 April 2026 (AEDT). Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 Reality Check
This late-April energy cluster is about more than three company reports. It is a live test of what the market wants to pay for in 2026.
Tesla ($TSLA)
Autonomy and energy shifting from promise to proof.
NextEra ($NEE)
Electricity demand turning into practical utility growth.
Exxon ($XOM)
Oil strength translating into durable earnings power.
Taken together, they offer a useful read on the part of the market that looks more physical, more capital-intensive and, for many traders, more real.
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