Noticias del mercado & perspectivas

The major American Indices have begun the last month of the year with in an extremely bearish state as recessionary fears rise to the surface again. With the positive sentiment relating to a potential pivot from the federal reserve seemingly disappearing, thoughts of a hard landing have become increasingly prominent. Even with an expected slowdown in interest rate hikes many analysts fear that it won’t be enough to pull the economy out of a recession or even a soft landing.

Technical Analysis The S&P500 has seen a major pivot off its long term down trend. The index has fallen by nearly 4.5% too begin the month and is showing a very similar price action to the three last downward moves. In addition, the 200-day moving average has once again acted as significant resistance for the index as it tried to reverse out of the down trend.

The RSI has also seen a break of its upward trend adding to the confirmation of the overall breakdown as buying has become exhausted. Moving forward, there is likely to be some potential support in the short term near 3900. However, if this support fails then the secondary target or support levels is a 3800 and then 3504 after that.

Therefore, there is potentially a large swing to the downside if the sentiment becomes worse and selling continues. The NASDAQ in particular has been following a similar trend to the S&P500 whilst the Dow Jones Index has been the more resilient of the US Indices. However, both of them have also felt the selling pressure from the S&P500 and the negative sentiment trickle down.

The NASDAQ in particular has faced a difficult time as the growth and technology sectors are smashed with the recessionary talk and inflationary pressures. With the end of the year fast approaching, the prospect of a Santa rally looks less promising with the sentiment in the market at the moment.

The world’s leading customer relationship management company Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) announced its latest financial results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. The company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Revenue reported at $7.84 billion (up by 14% year-over-year) vs. $7.827 billion expected.

EPS reported at $1.40 per share vs. $1.217 per share estimate. ''We had a solid quarter with revenue of $7.84 billion, up 14% year-over-year or 19% growth in constant currency, and record operating margin,'' Marc Benioff, Chair & Co-CEO of the company said in a press release. ''We’re grateful to our customers for their commitment, especially as we help them succeed in this challenging environment. There’s never been a more important time for our customers to connect with their customers in a whole new way,'' Benioff added. Salesforce also announced a departure of company Co-CEO, Bret Taylor. ''I am grateful for six fantastic years at Salesforce,'' Taylor said in a statement on the company's website. ''Marc was my mentor well before I joined Salesforce and the opportunity to partner with him to lead the most important software company in the world is career-defining.

After a lot of reflection, I've decided to return to my entrepreneurial roots. Salesforce has never been more relevant to customers, and with its best-in-class management team and the company executing on all cylinders, now is the right time for me to step away,'' Taylor concluded. Taylor is set to leave his position on January 31, 2023.

The stock was down by around 9% on Thursday, trading at $144.33. Stock performance 1 Month: -1.86% 3 Month: -6.46% Year-to-date: -43.49% 1 Year: -45.02% Salesforce price targets Jefferies: $230 B of A Securities: $200 Canaccord Genuity: $180 Truist Securities: $210 Cowen & Co.: $195 Wedbush: $200 Deutsche Bank: $200 Barclays: $180 Morgan Stanley: $250 BMO Capital: $172 JP Morgan: $200 Salesforce Inc. is the 78 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $143.57 billion. You can trade Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Salesforce Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) reported its latest financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, which ended October 31, after the market close in the US on Tuesday. The US software company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Intuit reported revenue of $2.597 billion (up by 29% year-over-year) vs. $2.497 billion expected.

EPS reported at $1.66 per share (an increase of 8% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $1.194 per share. ''We had a strong first quarter as we innovated and delivered on our strategy to be the global AI-driven expert platform powering prosperity for consumers and small businesses,'' Sasan Goodarzi, CEO of the company said in a statement. ''We continue to see proof that the benefits of our financial technology platform are more mission-critical than ever to our customers in an uncertain macro environment,'' Goodarzi added. The stock was down by 1.54% on Tuesday at $378.96 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -2.68% 3 month: -11.31% Year-to-date: -40.27% 1 year: -41.10% Intuit price targets Keybanc: $450 Morgan Stanley: $520 Credit Suisse: $500 BMO Capital: $467 Barclays: $490 Wells Fargo: $525 Stifel: $475 Citigroup: $538 Deutsche Bank: $560 Intuit is the 118 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $108.70 billion.

You can trade Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Intuit Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

The Chinese e-commerce platform Pinduoduo Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) announced its unaudited Q3 financial results on Monday. The company beat revenue estimates for the quarter, but fell short of earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Revenue reported at $4.991 billion (an increase of 65% year-over-year) vs. $4.315 billion estimate.

EPS at $0.302 per share vs. analyst estimate of $0.673 per share. ''We continued to deepen our value creation in the third quarter,'' Lei Chen, Chairman and CEO of the company said in a press release. ''We will increase our R&D investment to further enhance the supply chain efficiency and agricultural digital inclusion,'' Chen added. The latest results had a positive impact on the stock price. Shares of Pinduoduo were up by around 14% on Monday, trading $74.97 a share.

Stock performance 1 month: +36.93% 3 month: +69% Year-to-date: +78% 1 year: +34% Pinduoduo price targets Citigroup: $79 Barclays: $70 B of A Securities: $89 HSBC: $93 JP Morgan: $23 DBS Bank: $96 Macquarie: $104 Pinduoduo is the 136 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $94.92 billion. You can trade Pinduoduo Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pinduoduo Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Phillip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has issued an apology to the Australian public in his most recent statement. Lowe specifically apologised for providing guidance in 2020 and 2021 that the official cash would only rise in 2024. Instead, rate rises began earlier this year and rises have occurred in 7 straight months.

During that time many Australians took out home with the understanding of frozen rates at least until 2024. With inflation set to worsen and rise beyond 8% by the end of the year and the 30-day Interbank Cash rate futures pointing to a maximum cash rate of 3.865% by October next year it is not expected to get easier for Australian households. Furthermore, with the cost of living increasing, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Australians to afford their mortgages.

The apology from Lowe, whilst sincere does little to alleviate the short-term pain that will be felt by many families who have taken out home loans in the prior 12-18 months. The importance of the statements made by Lowe today are that the RBA will now adjust its messaging to the public to regain trust. Lowe attempted to justify the communication strategy at the time by outlining the exceptionality of the Pandemic and the circumstances that it brought, stating that, “It was dire times, and we decided that we would do everything we could.” Currently, the Australian dollar is $0.66 after bottoming at $0.62. as the USD has weakened and the Federals Reserve has become more open to lowering rates the AUD has recovered and regained some momentum.

The question remains, can the RBA build up trust with the public as it pushes forward in its fight against inflation or has faith in the Country’s central bank been diminished.

The USDCHF has just reached a significant support zone providing a potential entry for a low-risk high return trade. In recent weeks the USD has an aggressive pulled back on the back of weaker then expected inflation figures. This has benefited the CHF and most other non-USD currencies as expectations of a potential pivot grow and money moves away from the Greenback.

From a technical perspective the price of the USDCHF has fallen to its lowest price since August 2022. The price has also largely been in a ranging pattern since 2010 between 1.03436 0.8741. In addition, besides the Covid years, the price has been in a tighter range between 0.94 and 1.03.

The current price zone has been a really important area of support and in the most recent test of this area, in August the price bounced quite strongly. Interestingly, during times of higher market volatility the price extends its lower bound of the range from 0.94 to 0.87. For example, the prices extended its range during the GFC and the Covid pandemic.

However, generally, the pair trades in the tighter range. Therefore, as it is arguable if the current market conditions represent volatility as sinister as the GFC or the Pandemic this current price action lends itself to a potential bounce over a further sell off. The bounce is also supported by the RSI which is not just oversold but showing the potential for a divergence.

With the price at an ideal entry point, it allows for a high potential risk reward trade. The trade’s target is 1.0075 as seen on the price chart.