市场资讯及洞察

热门话题上周我给大家说了日本股市创下30年的新高，到现在过了7天，日本股市继续上涨，已经达到了33年的新高。距离其历史最高点还有7%的距离。美国股市也在AMD和一揽子科技股的追涨之下逼近到了新高。作为美国的紧密小弟，澳股虽然没有这么多的科技股，但是依然靠着“憧憬”马上要降息这个梦想，让自己的股市在银行股的上涨下也达到了历史新高附近。

然而，股市里的欣欣向荣，似乎就如同卖火柴的小女孩眼中的餐厅。不论是在微信澳洲的朋友圈，还是在本地英文媒体的各大主页上，物价上涨，民不聊生，到处裁员，生意冷淡，似乎成为了常态。如果你不出门只看朋友圈和英文报纸，你一定会觉得现在澳洲经济已经惨不忍睹，群众生活水深火热，马上就要崩溃了。我就说一句话，资本家和股市里的有钱人是不是傻？如果经济要崩溃了，惨不忍睹了，还有这么多的买家杀入股市买涨？股市还能逼近新高？那究竟真的是媒体和朋友圈让人感觉的朱门酒肉臭，路有冻死骨。还是说人们看到的信息，收到的信息都是被选择过了，普通人无法看到整个社会的全貌？通常我本人不太相信专家和媒体的言论，但是我相信，股市里的资金和钱，它们不会说谎。金钱是逐利的，很多人嘴上说的是一个极端，而自己的行为则是另一个极端。澳洲媒体发布的信息，是他们想让你看到的，不论是为了引导舆论拉选票，还是为了带风向。这些让人感到担心害怕的文章在明眼人看来都是故意以点概全，放大负面，而避开经济上的好事不说。如果经常看我评论的朋友们应该都有印象，我像祥林嫂一样从去年下半年开始絮絮叨叨500遍，说过就算是美国，欧洲经济都衰退了，澳洲也会是最后一个，表现最好的一个。为啥呢？除了有中国这个因素以外，最重要的一点，就是移民政策。

我说过500次，5000次，50000次。澳洲除了和欧美国家一样的货币，财政等刺激政策以外，还有一个别人没有的杀手锏，就是可以随意控制人口增加的数量。我不要移民时，一年可以就增加5万。但是如果澳洲需要移民来贡献消费，拉动经济时，一年就可以让短期人口马上增加50万。你没有看错，2023年，澳洲全年短期签证和长期签证的净移民（登录数-离开人数）就是51万人，几乎每周1万人，每天1500人。按照每人每年最少消费2万温饱开支计算，51万新增长短期人口，一年光是基本的吃喝拉撒，就可以增加102亿澳元的消费力，而按照消费增加1块钱，等于在经济循环里增加7倍来计算，这51万人，不算买房买车等大开支，只是租房买菜水电费，一年就可以给澳洲整体经济带来超过700亿澳元的增量。那如果51万人有30%买车，10%买房，那新增的经济总量就会轻易超过1000亿澳元。这对于澳洲2022年2.57万亿澳元的全国GDP来说，就几乎等于了3.9%的比例。换句话说，其他什么都没有改变，那多出来的51万移民人口，可以帮助澳洲经济带来至少额外3.9%的增长。但是按照2023年4个季度分别统计的数据，澳洲2023年的经济总上涨率应该在2%左右。这是在新增51万人的基础上得出的数字。那如果减去51万人带来的那1000亿的贡献，澳洲经济在2023年就应该是倒退1.9%左右。所以，澳洲经济衰退了吗？如果没有2023年的那多来的51万人，大概率会衰退。但是就靠着移民大法，澳洲一次又一次地躲过了衰退。2008年的金融危机，2012年的欧债危机，2018年的贸易战，所以2023年，也不例外。但是，我们都知道在疫情之前，澳洲平均每年新增的长期和短期人口大约是在25-30万人左右。其中包括10-15万短期签证，和10-15万新增长期签证。但是因为2020-2022年的疫情导致这3年移民基本进不来，因此2023年一放开，大家第一个感觉就是什么东西都贵了。其实很多时候不是东西贵，而是买的人多，导致物价的上涨，房租的上涨，房价的上涨。

澳洲政府清楚地知道2023年很难，因此为了让国家避开经济衰退的风险，不得不大举打开国门，开闸放人来。这直接加剧了澳洲物价的进一步上涨。我们都知道，在计算物价指数的关键组成里，房租价格和新房建造价格是关键。因此要想物价指数下来，就必须把租房压低，把建房成本压低。而前者需要控制留学生人数，后者则需要控制技术和商业移民人数。但是，租房和建房如果真的控制住，下跌了。也意味着，留学的少了，商业和投资移民也少了。2023年，澳洲躲开了经济衰退，但是无可奈何地将面对高物价的副作用。不论是物价高，还是经济差，都会导致最后选票的流失。所以，如果你是总理，一边选民让你控制物价，一边是高利息环境下对经济增长巨大的伤害，两边看上去都是不归路，那你还有第三个选择吗？还真有...那就是降息。但是降息要什么时候开始的决定权，在美国，不在澳洲。作为长期经济形势分析很少出错，短期股价走势很少答对的专业人士，我仍然是那句话：不用看欧美，相比于欧美，澳洲的经济依然会是相比之下最好的那个。因为澳洲手里可以使用的牌，比欧美更多。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

热门话题2023年，英伟达的股价暴涨近2.4倍，而AMD的涨幅也超过了1.2倍。从英伟达一枝独秀、巨无霸般的存在，到如今AMD在市场上略有一席之地，整个过程发生了悄然的转变。台积电（TSM）上周公布的财报大幅推动了其股价上涨，作为英伟达和美国超微公司AMD的主要供货商，台积电的业绩超过预期，积极的展望也带动了这两家公司股价创下历史新高。相比于英伟达屡创新高的强势表现，AMD在上周五才刚刚突破前高，展现出广阔的发展空间。

Wedbush投资公司的报告指出，这样的涨幅源于对景气前景的乐观展望，其中包括人工智能在增长状态下所做出的贡献，以及对2024年更加乐观的市场预期。那么，台积电这一强心针是否能够让AMD在2024年一同起飞呢？在台积电2023年第四季度业绩交流会上，台积电总裁魏哲家对2024年整体市场做了展望。他依然看好今年整体半导体产业，预计半导体产业（不含内存业）的产值将增长10%以上，晶圆代工产业将年成长20%。他预期，受到人工智能（AI）和高性能计算需求的推动，台积电在2024年的全年营收有望实现年成长21%至25%。其中，由于客户对3纳米技术的长期强劲需求，预计今年3纳米技术的收入将增长超过两倍。市场分析认为，由于台积电业绩展望良好，更加明确了人工智能的前景。AMD、英伟达、苹果、高通等科技巨头都是台积电的客户，台积电的业绩预期在一定程度上反映了这些科技公司对今年业绩的展望。Bernstein分析师Mark Li表示，到2027年，台积电预计人工智能芯片将占其收入的百分之十以上。台积电管理层认为，在未来五年内，制造AI芯片有望占到其收入的百分之十几，这对英伟达和AMD都将产生积极影响。

目前，各大投行纷纷上调AMD的目标价，看好其在AI机遇中的崛起，并有望追赶英伟达。在AMD股价持续飙升、不断创下新高的同时，华尔街依然看好其股价继续上涨。在过去三个月里，有超过80%的分析师建议“买入”，平均目标价约为150美元，高于一个月前的130美元，共识评级为“强力推荐”。去年12月，AMD发布了全新的MI300系列AI芯片，试图挑战英伟达在人工智能芯片领域的霸主地位。AMD声称，MI300系列芯片的性能优于英伟达的H100显卡，并已经获得微软、甲骨文、Meta以及OpenAI的订单。科技股分析师Beth Kindig预计，今年MI300芯片的出货量将达到30万-40万块，而英伟达H100的出货量将达到150万-200万块。巴克莱将AMD的股价目标价从120美元上调至200美元，预计今年在AI芯片销售上将实现40亿美元的业绩。与此同时，华尔街知名投行KeyBanc分析师将AMD的目标价从170美元上调至195美元，反映了目前各大公司对AI服务器的强劲需求，并对未来潜力充满信心。Cowen继续看好AMD，将其目标股价从130美元上调至185美元，并表示MI300正在成为生成人工智能市场中“功能越来越强大”的替代品。除此之外，Susquehanna Financial将AMD的目标价提高至170美元。分析师认为，尽管英伟达的领先地位不容小觑，但市场对于第二大供应商的期望和需求将促使软件生态系统进一步发展，从而有利于AMD的崛起。

综上所述，2023年英伟达为芯片行业开疆拓土，AMD紧随其后上涨，2024年AMD有望进一步强化产品特色，其涨势可能比英伟达更为迅猛。在整个AI领域形势不变的前提下，AMD目前的年回报预期优于英伟达。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported the latest delivery numbers for Q4 2023 on Tuesday. World’s largest electric vehicle company produced around 495k cars during the quarter. Deliveries reached 484k.

The company produced a total of 1.85 million vehicles last year – up by 35% year-over-year. Total deliveries reached 1.81 million – up by 38% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 1/7/2003 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 127,855 (2022) Industry: Automotive, renewable energy, artificial intelligence Key people: Elon Musk (CEO), Robyn Denholm (chair) The stock was little changed on Tuesday, down by 0.02% at $248.42 a share.

Tesla will announced Q4 2023 financial results after the US market closing bell on 24/1/2024. Stock performance 1 month:+ 5.45% 3 months: -1.26% 6 months: -10.67% 1 year: +101.67% Tesla price targets Morgan Stanley: $380 Wedbush: $350 Royal Bank of Canada: $300 Guggenheim: $132 Deutsche Bank: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $210 HSBC: $146 Wells Fargo: $250 Citigroup: $255 Piper Sandler: $290 UBS Group: $266 JP Morgan: $135 Truist Financial: $243 Barclays: $260 Goldman Sachs: $275 TD Cowen: $200 Mizuho: $330 Tesla is the 8th largest company in the world with a market cap of $789.70 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays; please see specifications section on platform for further details.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, MarketBeat

US professional services company, Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX), released financial results for second quarter of fiscal 2024 before the market open on Thursday. Revenue reached $1.258 billion (up by 6% year-over-year), which fell short of $1.268 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported at $1.08 per share (up by 9% year-over-year), slightly above estimate of $1.074 per share.

Company overview Founded: 1971 Headquarters: Rochester, New York, United States Number of employees: 16,000 (2022) Industry: Business Process Outsourcing, human Capital Management Key people: B. Thomas Golisano (chairman), John Gibson (president & CEO), Efrain Rivera (senior VP & CFO) CEO commentary ''We are pleased with our results for the second quarter and the first half of fiscal 2024, with total revenue growth of 6% and diluted earnings per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth through the first half of the fiscal year of 10%. The macro-economic environment remains stable for small and mid-sized businesses, who continue to face challenges in both the cost of and access to growth capital; and finding quality talent in the current labor market.

Our Small Business Employment Watch continues to show moderation in both job growth and wage inflation,'' John Gibson, CEO of the American company commented on the latest results. ''We continue to see demand for our HCM technology, HR and insurance solutions, as businesses struggle to comply with increasing regulations and a challenging HR landscape and labor market,'' Gibson concluded. Stock reaction The stock fell by around 6% on Thursday, trading at $119.72 a share – the lowest level since 28/11/23. Stock performance 1 month: +0.28% 3 months: +5.27% Year-to-date: +3.22% 1 year: +6.33% Paychex stock price targets Barclays: $126 UBS Group: $120 Argus: $130 Bank of America: $106 Morgan Stanley: $127 Royal Bank of Canada: $130 TD Cowen: $131 Wedbush: $115 JP Morgan: $134 Robert W.

Baird: $126 Deutsche Bank: $116 Citigroup: $119 Jefferies Financial: $120 Paychex Inc. is the 419th largest company in the world with a market cap of $43.07 billion. You can trade Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.

Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Paychex Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

The world’s biggest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), reported Q2 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. Nike reported revenue of $13.388 billion for the quarter (up by 1% year-over-year and down by 1% on neutral currency basis), narrowly falling short of Wall Street estimate of $13.391 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) topped Wall Street estimates for the quarter at $1.03 per share vs. estimate of $0.84 per share.

EPS was up by 21% from the year prior. Company overview Founded: 1964 Headquarters: Beaverton, Oregon, United States Number of employees: 3,700 (2023) Industry: Apparel, accessories, sports equipment Key people: Philip H. Knight (chairman emeritus), Mark Parker (executive chairman), John Donahoe (president and CEO), John Hoke III (chief design officer) CEO commentary "Our Q2 results demonstrated how we are getting back on our front foot in our key areas of innovation and growth.

This quarter showed strong execution by our team as we focus on our winning formula of innovative product, distinctive storytelling and differentiated marketplace experiences," CEO of Nike, John Donahoe, commented on the latest results. Stock reaction The stock was up by just under a 1% at the end of Thursday’s session at $122.53 a share. Share price fell by around 5% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced.

Stock performance 1 month: +13.47% 3 months: +33.70% Year-to-date: +4.66% 1 year: +4.93% Nike stock price targets Raymond James: $130 Telsey Advisory Group: $140 Royal Bank of Canada: $127 DZ Bank: $130 Citigroup: $135 Goldman Sachs: $139 Truist Financial: $108 Evercore ISI: $124 Deutsche Bank: $125 JP Morgan: $137 Barclays: $119 Morgan Stanley: $126 TD Cowen: $120 Nike Inc. is the 60th largest company in the world with a market cap of $186.35 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.

Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Nike Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Wednesday’s session saw another drift higher in equities with volumes still in holiday mode and few major catalysts to drive market action. There were some big moves in safe haven assets with USDCHF tanking and Gold breaking a key resistance level, a big build in inventories also saw Crude Oil take a tumble. USDCHF The Swiss Franc surged over 1% against the USD, one of its biggest session gains of 2023 and seeing USDCHF hit lows not seen since SNB intervention back in 2015.

Price action seemed to be more CHF strength rather the USD weakness as CHF handily outperformed all other G10 currencies. USDCHF RSI reading also hit the most oversold level since the safe haven flows of the pandemic panic of March 2020. XAUUSD - Gold Safe haven flows also gave Gold a tailwind with XAUUSD breaching the major resistance at 2070 USD an ounce, which had held the Gold price in check for the last week.

A weaker USD, falling yields also bolstering the precious metal. 2070 remains the key level for now, if the bulls can establish this level as support, another run higher to test the all-time highs could be on the cards. USOUSD – Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil started Wednesday’s session with a rally after further attacks on tankers in the Red Sea sparked supply concerns. The rally fizzled later in the session demand fears after the weekly API report showed an unexpected build in crude inventories.

USOUSD forming a “death cross” (where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200 day SMA) for the first time since September 2022, last time We saw this a significant decline in Oil Prices took place.