市场资讯及洞察

热门话题如果大家还有印象的话，在2023年巴菲特每年一次的伯克希尔股东大会上明确的表达了自己对于日本股市看好，而且优先程度高于美国股市的意见之后，日本股市在本周一的价格已经达到了其34年来的新高——回到了1990年的高点。说到日本股市，大家第一个想到的就和日本经济一样，概念中感觉日本在过去30年股市和经济都停滞不前，包括日本当地居民的工资水平，由于过去30年几乎没有通货膨胀，甚至还有通货紧缩，也就是东西越来越便宜，使得日本企业不需要增加工资水平来应对其他国家都有的物价上涨的情况。网上经常说到日本经历了失去的30年，似乎我们印象中30年前全世界的家电几乎都是日本品牌，而今只剩下索尼和松下还在苦苦支撑。那是不是日本的经济就真的如同网上说的，30年没有进步呢？相信如果大家输入日本经济30年走势图，出来的大部分都是以美元计价的走势图，那日本经济给人的感觉就是这样的：

（来源：国际货币基金组织数据统计2023年）日本的美元计价GDP可以从2012年的6万2千亿美元，下跌到2016年的4万4千亿美元，如果不告诉你，你肯定以为日本经济在短短4年时间里下跌了接近30%。但是真实情况并非如此。如果我们输入日本经济GDP日元单位走势图后，就可以看到下面这个图：

（出自ResearchGate）我们不难看出，如果日本的经济总量以其当地货币做统计后，日本的经济虽然在1990年以后增长很慢，但是依然以每年1-1.5%的速度上涨了30年。其经济总量也从1990年的400万亿日元，增加到了如今的600万亿规模。那既然日元GDP在上涨，为什么一旦用美元统计之后就会有这么大的波动呢？唯一的解释就是日元和美元价值的高度波动性。日元可以从2010年的80日元兑换1美元，大幅贬值接近一半，到2016年就需要120日元才能兑换1美元。也就是说，如果2010年和2016年日本GDP即使保持不变的情况下，如果用美元统计，那日本的GDP在2016年也会看似缩水50%。

所以，如果我们单纯看美元统计的经济数据，很有可能会得出一个完全相反的结论。有朋友可能会觉得，是日本80年被美国逼着签订了广场协议，才导致日本90年代经济奔溃，失去了20年。其实事实并非完全这样。今天时间有限，我只能简单和大家说说，首先当年美国不仅仅是和日本签，同时也和包括德国在内的其他5个对美国每年有巨大出口量的国家签字。因为学过经济学的朋友们应该知道，日本作为一个典型的出口大于进口的国家，理论上来说，其出口换成的资金进入日本，要多余其用在购买进口商品的价格上，因此每年日本都流入大量资金，那日元理论上就应该连续不断的升值。但是日本为了保持其出口的价格（换成美元以后的价格）优势，因此一致把日元压在很低的汇率上，这样同样例如10万日元出口的商品，换成美元以后价格就会很低，因此竞争力就很强。但是美国觉得日本，德国等在故意压低其国家货币的价值，这样对于美国本土产品时就占了很大的便宜，因此美国要求这些主要以出口美国为主的国家，如果还想挣钱，就把汇率调整到“合理”水平。也就是逼着日本，德国这些国家大幅提高其本国货币的价值，这样出口商品到美国，换成美元时就会贵很多。但是虽然当日本不得不大幅升值日元，导致地产和金融泡沫最终被戳破后，其实另一方面也帮助日本在其他地方得到了很多。日本楼市股市崩盘后，虽然让日本经济步入了萧条，但日本在上世界90年代就已高度工业化，如果我们看过90年代日本电视剧的朋友们应该知道，那时的日本已经相当发达。那股市和楼市泡沫破灭后日本进行了深度的产业升级，彻底摆脱了依赖金融推动的虚拟经济模式，而走上了科技兴国的道路，这30年来，日本在很多领域的技术实力都是全球领先的。当然今天我们不是要讨论失去的20或30年。今天我们要分析的是，为什么巴菲特看好日本股市，以及日本股市未来还会不会有机会。有关为什么巴菲特看好日本股市的原因，巴菲特自己在2023年说到的原因一是基于投资分散原因，因为如果把全部资金压在美国市场，那一旦出现问题，很难可以避得开。那第二就是巴菲特觉得日本很多上市公司的价值被低估。但是除了这两点冠冕堂皇的理由之外，还有一点巴爷没有明说的就是：2022年开始，美国大量加息，但是日本依然没有加息。从而导致两国货币出现了巨大的汇率差。而且这个汇率差很有可能会持续较长时间。大家可能要疑惑，为什么汇率差会导致股市这么大的变化呢？我们这么说吧：如果世界大部分国家都跟着美国加息了，如果当美元5%这个利率成为了全世界的资金使用成本的话，那日元依然保持的0.1%的利率，就等同于日本对于其他西方国家在大幅降息。如果我是资本大鳄，看到这个情况，就会有2个反应：1.去日本用0.1%的利率大量借钱，然后换成高息货币比如美元存起来，套利息差。或者我就算不套利息差，我如果在日本有企业，那就应该尽量多贷款，然后投资去其他高息货币基金。2.日元因为利息低，所以大量日元会流出，去高息国家，因此日元会不断贬值。3.因为日元的贬值，因此以出口为主的那些日本上市公司，或者主要收入在海外的上市公司，他们今年赚的美元，换成日元会多很多。所以这些公司的股价会上涨。上面3个因果关系，相信大家都可以看得懂，那最后的问题来了：上面三个基础里，未来会发生180度改变吗？在美元降息之前，都不会。而且就算美元降息了，那美元和日元的利息差依然是缓慢减少，美元要回到之前和日元一样的0.1%的时代，可能近几年是不太可能了。所以，你懂了吧。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

热门话题2024年刚开始半月，俄乌战事依然未止，巴以冲突仍在继续，英美还突袭胡塞武装，被特朗普称为火上浇油。上周末之前刚刚发生的胡塞武装被袭击事件，直接导致了周五晚盘油价暴涨，能源价格飙升，欧洲航线集装箱价格暴涨近600%。

据美国媒体12日报道，由于红海紧张局势持续时间的增加，全球海运受到的影响愈发显著，航运成本也不断攀升。受红海局势牵连，亚欧部分航线上的集装箱价格近期急剧上涨，许多航运公司选择暂停红海航线。据路透社12日报道，在美英空袭也门胡塞武装目标后，又有4艘大型油轮改变行驶方向，避开原定的红海航线。市场分析人士指出，美英对胡塞武装目标的打击不仅不会降低红海的紧张局势，反而会加剧当地的紧张，导致航运公司更长时间地回避红海航线。据国际在线13日报道，联合国秘书长古特雷斯就美英空袭胡塞武装多处目标发表声明，呼吁各方遵守安理会第2722号决议，避免也门紧张局势进一步升级。古特雷斯特别强调，袭击红海地区的国际船只是不可接受的，因为这将危及全球供应链的安全，对全球经济和人道主义形势造成负面影响。由于美英打击也门胡塞武装，国际市场的担忧情绪上升，原油价格大幅上涨。纽约原油和布伦特原油期货价格最高日内涨幅均超过4%。其中，纽约原油最高触及每桶75.25美元，布伦特原油最高达每桶80.75美元。美国媒体报道称，随着红海紧张局势的持续，全球海运受到的冲击愈发显著，航运成本也将进一步攀升。同时，为弥补暂停红海航线的影响，多家航运公司正将船只转移到亚洲—欧洲、亚洲—地中海航线，这又推高了其他航线的航运成本。对于美英空袭也门胡塞武装一事，中东多国表达了严重关切。由于红海局势存在巨大不确定性，难以做出可靠的预测，如果沙特、阿联酋等中东产油国卷入其中，将导致石油价格大幅波动，影响更为深远。自巴以冲突爆发以来，也门胡塞武装多次使用无人机和导弹袭击红海水域目标。胡塞武装声称与以色列有关的船只是其合法打击目标，袭击将持续至以色列停止对加沙地带的军事打击。联合国安理会本月10日刚刚通过第2722号决议，强烈谴责也门胡塞武装在红海袭击商船。也门政治评论人士表示美英的空袭不能在短时间内削弱胡塞武装的作战能力，也不能解决当前危机。美英的空袭只会刺激胡塞武装采取更进一步的行动，可能导致整个曼德海峡被封锁，从而升级红海危机。另一名政治评论人士阿瓦吉则担忧，美英的空袭将进一步恶化已经不乐观的也门人道主义形势，并给也门冲突的永久停火前景带来更多变数。

从市场交易产品的角度看，红海危机首先影响全球海运成本，推动物流相关标的价格上涨，其次是潜在的原油价格受到影响，直接导致短期内油价飙升。延伸到能源领域，原油之外，天然气涨幅更大，而本已经处于大幅反弹周期的天然气价格又上了一个新高。此外，当前涉及核能的板块，如铀矿股整体在周五迎来了上涨，周一也将影响澳大利亚铀矿股的整体走势。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

It was positive start to a new week for the Chinese electric vehicle company, NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO), after it announced a $2.2 billion strategic investment from an Abu Dhabi based investment firm CYVN Holdings on Monday. The deal is expected to be completed in the last week of December and it will make CYVN a major shareholder in the company with a 20.1% stake. ''Our increased investment in NIO represents a continuation of our ongoing strategy to build a leading global portfolio in the mobility space,'' Jassem Al Zaabi, Chairman and Managing Director of CYVN Holdings said in press release. ''This transaction demonstrates our confidence in NIO’s unique positioning and competitiveness in the global smart EV industry. We are excited to be a long-term strategic partner of NIO and support its efforts in product innovation, technological breakthroughs and international market expansion,'' Al Zaabi added.

William Li, CEO of NIO, also commented on the latest investment, highlighting the importance of the deal for the company: 'We are deeply inspired by CYVN’s vision to accelerate the global transition to a more sustainable future, and we appreciate its endorsement of NIO’s unique values. With the enhanced balance sheet, NIO is well prepared to sharpen brand positioning, bolster sales and service capabilities, and make long-term investment in core technologies to navigate the intensifying competitive landscape, while continually improving execution efficiency and system capabilities.' Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) Stock reaction The stock was initially up by around 11% in pre-market trading on Monday as the latest news were released. Shares were up by 4.64% at the of the day, trading at $8.35 a share – the highest level since 17/10/23.

Stock performance 1 month: +6.99% 3 months: -19.06% Year-to-date: -14.41% 1 year: -24.55% NIO stock price targets Deutsche Bank: $16 CMB International Securities: $9.20 UBS: $15 Daiwa: $11.80 HSBC: $12 Mizuho: $18 Bank of America: $15 JP Morgan: $10.50 Citigroup: $19.20 NIO Inc. is the 1130th largest and 5th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $15.10 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.

Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Chinese electric vehicle company, NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO), reported Q3 results before the opening bell in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) The results NIO reported revenue of $2.611 billion for the previous quarter, narrowly missing analyst estimate of $2.634 billion. Revenue was up by 46.6% year-over-year and up by 117.4% from Q2 2022.

The company reported loss per share of -$0.312 for Q3, which was below analyst estimate of -$0.351 loss per share. NIO delivered 55,432 cars during the quarter, setting a new quarterly record. CEO commentary "NIO delivered 55,432 vehicles in the third quarter of 2023, representing a solid year-over-year growth of 75.4% and setting a new record for quarterly delivery," William Li, CEO of NIO said in a statement. "According to the retail sales data from China Automotive Technology and Research Center, NIO ranked first in the battery electric vehicle market segment priced over RMB300,000 in China, with a market share of 45% in the third quarter of 2023," Li highlighted NIO’s position in the market. "We have recently completed a thorough review of the Company’s two-year operating plans to determine our objectives, priorities, and action plans.

Meanwhile, we have identified opportunities to optimize our organization, reduce costs and enhance efficiency. Our focus remains on advancing core technologies, developing key products, and expanding sales and service capabilities. We are confident in NIO's long-term competitiveness in the smart electric vehicle market," Li concluded.

Stock reaction Shares of NIO were up by over 3% on Tuesday, trading at around $7.55 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -3.36% 3 months: -29.46% Year-to-date: -21.79% 1 year: -42.41% NIO stock price targets Deutsche Bank: $16 CMB International Securities: $9.20 UBS: $15 Daiwa: $11.80 HSBC: $12 Mizuho: $18 Bank of America: $15 JP Morgan: $10.50 Citigroup: $19.20 NIO Inc. is the 1200th largest and 6th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $13.5 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?

Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

World’s 4th largest construction company, Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN), released its fourth quarter and full-year of fiscal 2023 financial results after the market close on Wall Street on Thursday. Company overview Founded: 1954 Headquarters: Waterford District, unincorporated Miami-Dade County, Florida (Miami, Florida postal address) Number of employees: 12,012 (2022) Industry: Construction Key people: Stuart Miller (Executive Chairman, co-CEO), Jon Jaffe (co-CEO, President), Fred Rothman (COO) The results The US company reported revenue of $10.968 billion (an increase of 7.8% year-over-year) vs. $10.228 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $4.82 per share for the quarter that ended on 30/11/2023 vs. $4.592 per share estimate.

EPS was up by 5.93% from the same period the year prior. Total revenue reached $34.2 billion for the fiscal year 2023 – up by 1.67% year-over-year. EPS was reported at $13.73 per share – down by 12.65% from 2022.

CEO commentary "We are pleased to report another strong quarter and year end, against the backdrop of evolving, though constructive, market conditions. During our fourth quarter, the economic environment shifted as interest rates rose for most of the quarter, and then subsided. Higher interest rates tested homebuyer sentiment, although purchasers remained responsive to incentives that enabled affordability.

The well documented production deficit and chronic supply shortage continued to result in housing demand outweighing short supply. These conditions remained constructive for our overall operating strategy of focusing on production and sales pace over price, generating strong cash flow, increasing returns on equity and assets, and driving a strong bottom line," co-CEO of Lennar commented on the latest results in a letter to investors and challenges for the company. Jon Jadde, co-CEO of the company pointed out some of the achievements from the fourth quarter and looked ahead of what the company expects to achieve moving forward: "Operationally, our starts in the fourth quarter were 18,378, up 43% year over year, our new orders were 17,366, up 32%, and our deliveries of 23,795 were up 19%.

We are clearly moving closer to an even flow operating model as we are now expecting approximately 18,500 starts, 18,000 new orders, and 17,000 deliveries in the first quarter of 2024. We expect more consistent results through the year as our cycle time is normalizing and was down 24% year over year as the improving supply chain and labor market positively impacted our production times and our inventory turn improved to 1.5 times reflecting broader efficiencies. Concurrently, the Lennar Machine continued to carefully match sales pace using our digital marketing and dynamic pricing models to keep production pace and sales pace closely matched." Stock reaction Shares of Lennar were up by 6.65% at the end of the trading session on Thursday, trading at $154.81 a share.

The stock price dipped by around 2% in the after-hours trading as the results were announced. Stock performance 1 month: +21.22% 3 months: +30.88% Year-to-date: +70.22% 1 year: +63.38% Costco stock price targets Barclays: $165 Jefferies Financial Group: $117 Wells Fargo: $130 JP Morgan: $135 JMP Securities: $150 Citigroup: $139 Royal Bank of Canada: $114 UBS Group: $159 Evercore ISI: $164 Wedbush: $123 Goldman Sachs: $142 Lennar Corporation is the 29th largest company in the world with a market cap of $281.37 billion. You can trade Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?

Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Lennar Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

On Monday, Citigroup raised its target price for the Irish multinational conglomerate, Johnson Controls International plc (NYSE: JCI), from $58 to $61 a share. On Tuesday, Johnson Controls announced its latest financial results for its fiscal fourth 2023. Let’s see how it performed.

Company overview Founded: 1885 Headquarters: Cork, Ireland Number of employees: 102,000 (2022) Industry: Conglomerate Key people: George Oliver (Chairman, CEO) The results Johnson Controls reported revenue of $6.906 billion for the quarter (up by 3% year-over-year), which missed analyst estimate of $7.099 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also fell short of estimates at $1.05 per share (up by 6% year-over-year) vs. $1.095 per share expected. CEO commentary "Our fiscal 2023 results, highlighted by strong sales growth and margin expansion, further validate that our strategy of providing solutions that make buildings smarter, healthier, and more sustainable continues to gain momentum," George Oliver, CEO of Johnson Controls said in a letter to investors. "We made significant progress during the year advancing our service strategy, enabled by digital, and we continue to see strong order momentum and record backlog entering our new fiscal year," Oliver added.

Stock reaction The stock was down by over 6% during the trading day on Tuesday, trading at $52.63 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -0.58% 3 months: -9.06% Year-to-date: -18.54% 1 year: -21.70% Johnson Controls International stock price targets Citigroup: $61 Oppenheimer: $66 UBS Group: $74 Wells Fargo: $62 HSBC: $69 Morgan Stanley: $70 Barclays: $64 JP Morgan: $72 Deutsche Bank: $65 Mizuho: $78 Bank of America: $72 Johnson Controls International plc is the 507th largest company in the world with a market cap of $35.89 billion. You can trade Johnson Controls International plc (NYSE: JCI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?

Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Johnson Controls International plc, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap