市场资讯及洞察

What a week and a half we have had - Central Banks the world over have delivered their May decisions for their respective interest rate moves (or non-moves). Thus, we need to review the FX reactions and the outlook for rates for the rest of 2024. Let’s start at home: RBA and the AUD First, as expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates on hold at 4.35%, this was expected however the prospect of rate cuts in 2024 is fading fast.

That was brought to light in the statement and Michele Bullock’s press conference. Here's a breakdown of the key points: Inflation Dynamics: The RBA notes that inflation is declining, albeit at a slower pace than expected. Services inflation is moderating gradually, driven by a labour market that the RBA now perceives as tighter than previously assessed.

This indicates that the labour market conditions are exerting influence on inflation dynamics. Monetary Policy: The RBA views its current monetary policy stance as restrictive, with the cash rate level seen as supportive of achieving the target inflation range of 2–3%. However the Board did leave the door open for all movements both hikes and cuts if inflation doesn’t return target inside a meaningful timeframe.

Other Considerations: The RBA remains attentive to developments in the global and domestic economy, the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Thus, it remains data-dependent to policy decisions. What caught our attention the most was the shift in language, particularity the downplaying of supply-side inflation and the attention on domestic demand which is still be too high leading to the same sticky inflation effect we are seeing in the US.

The FX market reaction was mixed on all this, the initial reaction was bearish as the more hawkish bets of the previous few weeks unwound. However, the AUD remains one of the best performing currencies in the G10. With the RBA signalling that its next move may still be a hike it is likely to remain in the ascendancy against those FX players that are facing confirmed cuts in the coming months.

BoE and GBP It seems like the Bank of England (BoE) is navigating through some interesting waters with its monetary policy decisions. The Board voted 7-2 vote to keep rates at 5.25%, but it was Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks post the decisions that caught the market’s attention hinting at a potential shift towards a sharper and faster accommodative stance. The fact that money markets are fully pricing in a rate cut by August, with a considerable probability assigned to a cut in June (44%), indicates a significant anticipation of policy easing.

But Bailey’s suggestion suggests it could be sooner and stronger than priced. No doubt the BoE's decision-making will indeed be influenced by upcoming data on wage settlements and inflation. But it’s clear the impact on the GBP is one way and that is down, particularly when it’s against the likes of the USD or AUD.

It’s a slight more mixed position against the EUR, SEK and CAD as their respective banks are also pointing to rate cuts. ECB and the EUR The EUR is facing a mixed bag having eased through the year but is facing a complex interplay between economic data, market sentiment, and central bank expectations. For example despite some mixed German economic indicators, EUR managed to strengthen last week supported by positive developments in German exports and stronger Eurozone retail sales.

The real headwind for the EUR is the speculation of when (not if) European Central Bank (ECB) will rate cuts. Speculation is rising that next month’s meeting will be the start point after the minutes from the last meeting reinforced dovish bets. Something to watch, the upcoming release of May’s ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany could provide further insight into the economic outlook.

If the sentiment continues to improve, particularly in the Eurozone's largest economy, it could lend support to the EUR amid ongoing uncertainties surrounding ECB policy decisions. Watch the likes of EURGBP and EURSEK in particular. Riksbank and SEK And finally, a mover.

For the first time in 8 years the Riksbank lowered its key interest rate to 3.75% after a two-year period of rate hikes. Governor Erik Thedeen's indication that two more rate cuts are likely in the second half of the year, contingent upon inflation remaining subdued, reflects the proactive stance aimed at supporting economic stability from the Bank. However, Thedeen's emphasized caution as the economic landscape and potential risks associated with policy changes could change the Bank’s outlook.

This could explain the reaction of the SEK to the rate cut a short-lived weakening then a recovery. This highlights the interplay between monetary policy as bigger players such as the BoE and ECB could overrun the dovishness in the smaller SEK for the bigger EUR and GBP.

One of the largest software companies in the world, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) announced Q1 FY2024 earnings results after the market closed in the US on Thursday. The company achieved revenue of $5.182 billion – a new record vs. $5.143 billion expected. Revenue grew by 11% year-over-year.

Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $4.48 (up from $3.80 in 2023) vs. $4.377 per share estimate. Adobe expects revenue of between $5.25 and $5.30 billion for the current quarter, which would fall below Wall Street estimate of $5.31 billion. EPS expected at between $4.35 and $4.40 vs. $4.37 per share estimate.

Company overview Founded: December 1982 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 26,000 (2022) Industry: Software Key people: Shantanu Narayen (Chairman & CEO) CEO commentary "Adobe drove record Q1 revenue demonstrating strong momentum across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud," Shantanu Narayen, CEO of Adobe said in a press release to shareholders. "We’ve done an incredible job harnessing the power of generative AI to deliver groundbreaking innovation across our product portfolio," Narayen added. Stock reaction There was no major movement in Adobe share price before the earnings call. The stock was down by 0.54% at $570.45 a share.

Shares fell by around 10% in the after-hours trading despite beating analyst estimates on future guidance. Stock performance 5 day: +2.59% 1 month: -3.39% 3 months: -2.43% Year-to-date: -4.38% 1 year: +61.47% Adobe stock price targets BNP Paribas: $499 Piper Sandler: $705 Barclays: $700 Stifel Nicolaus: $625 Royal Bank of Canada: $615 Citigroup: $675 BMO Capital Markets: $690 KGI Securities: $730 DA Davidson: $640 Oppenheimer: $660 HSBC: $519 Argus: $611 Wolfe Research: $650 Bank of America: $660 Adobe Inc. is the 42 nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $258.15 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.

To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?

Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Adobe Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) announced Q2 of fiscal 2024 earnings results before the US market opened on Thursday. Irish-American professional services company reported revenue that fell slightly short of analyst estimate of $15.847 billion at $15.8 billion. Earnings per share reached $2.77 for the quarter vs. $2.661 per share expected.

Company overview Founded: 1989 Headquarters: Dublin, Ireland Number of employees: 733,000 (2023) Industry: Professional services, information technology consulting Key people: Julie Sweet (Chair and CEO) CEO commentary "In an uncertain macro environment, we remain the trusted partner to our clients for reinvention with a record 39 clients with quarterly bookings of over $100 million. We also extended our early lead in generative AI with $1.1 billion in new bookings in the first half of the year. And we are investing to serve the needs of our clients and expand our growth opportunities with $2.9 billion of capital deployed in the first half in strategic acquisitions.

Thank you to our more than 740,000 people around the world for your dedication to delivering value for our clients," Julie Sweet, CEO of Accenture said in a note to shareholders. Stock reaction Share price fell by around 9% on Thursday to $346.12 a share – the lowest level since January. Stock performance 5 day: +0.59% 1 month: +2.46% 3 months: +9.09% Year-to-date: +8.42% 1 year: +40.04% Accenture stock price targets Guggenheim: $425 Redburn Atlantic: $445 Morgan Stanley: $417 Stifel Nicolaus: $395 Piper Sandler: $394 Citigroup: $430 Robert W.

Baird: $375 Bank of America: $419 Royal Bank of Canada: $374 Mizuho: $426 UBS Group: $400 BNP Paribas: $440 BMO Capital Markets: $385 Wedbush: $360 TD Cowen: $360 Barclays: $390 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $341 Accenture plc is the 44 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $238.53 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Accenture plc (NYSE: CAN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".

GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.

Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Accenture plc, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

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经历了一轮大幅度暴跌之后，市场波动把投资者和投机者们都吓坏了，包括我。果断砍了仓，结果有很多订单平在地板上。这一波神操作，把日本央行也吓到了。副行长立马表态，“不会在市场不稳定的时候加息，目前需要坚定地实施宽松政策。”市场终于可以放松一下了，也验证了我昨天分享给大家的想法：这次的暴跌，源于日元套利盘离场以及欧洲老钱的全球资产保值（抵御之后的降息货币）。所以，最终表现在亚洲盘，日本股市和汇率波动最大，其次是亚洲盘的澳元和纽币，而美股和美国华尔街代表的资产标的，波动较小，美国经济数据差，但是距离衰退还有很久，美国市场算作正常调整。在日股和日元双双起舞，带崩全球市场之后，日本央行顶不住了，“放鸽”投降 。我估计可能华尔街给日本央行打电话了，说不要把日本的问题，波动到美国市场。然后，内田真一发表讲话了，讲话期间，美元兑日元大幅度走高，几句话，美日从145上升到147，涨幅超过2%。市场喊话：直接从“ICU”冲进“KTV”，此前受到影响的科技股“七姐妹”，Meta，特斯拉，谷歌，微软，亚马逊，英伟达，苹果，大部分也开始回升。大家如果有想抄底的，最近到9月，都是不错的机会，可以适当关注一些值得长期配置的股票。

目前市场的基准步调是：担心经济衰退，担心政治风险，担心很多，但是，钱印出来了，印了很多，不会消失，稍微放放水，未来就是泛滥成灾，所以，又没有那么担心，一切都靠纸币支撑，付出的是最廉价的成本。所以，市场出现异动不可怕，只要有政府和央行兜底就可以。另外，也再次看出来，新的进场机会，在于几个指标：1. 美国股票指数没有下跌。美国股市代表的是国际产业资本，全球范围内大部分富豪群体的主要资产都在美国股票市场中，包括很多美国政客。华尔街的收入也主要来自于美国股市。因此，我们要看的是WS30和NDX100这两个指标，是否会创出新低。如果在恐慌期间，没有创出新低，或者晚上美国开盘，有明显的拉盘迹象，出现大阳线，那么意味着美国股市代表的美国经济，还是比较稳健的。

2. CHF，或者USDCHF。如果这个货币对下跌，意味着欧洲的老钱们对美元资产失去兴趣，开始回归欧洲，选择货币稳定性最高的瑞士法郎。作为中立国，瑞士法郎在全球购买力，一直很稳定。看一下1980年至今的AUDCHF汇率走势就知道了，AUD兑CHF购买力夏经75%。USDCHF买张涨是有利息可以拿的，如果资本放弃了利息，放弃了套息交易，意味着损失了年化3-8%的无风险收益。但是，老钱们看的不是几个点的相对无风险收益，如果美元贬值，未来他们所谓的无风险套息收益，实际购买力在全球范围来看，可能也会下降。他们看重的是100元的购买力，经历100年，能够买的黄金还是那么多，能够买的土地还是那么多，在任何国家的货币贬值和通胀背景下，购买力要最稳健。如果这两个产品没有大的暴动，只有澳元汇率，日元汇率，或者局部地区的股市和比特币发生大的波动，那就不能够被认为恐慌继续蔓延，或家具加剧。当然，局部地区的产品或货币波动，是正常的，风险情绪或者说对未来经济和货币政策差异化的担忧，引发的抛售，是合理的。快速的下跌，是好于无休止的缓慢下跌。大家在一个没有波动的缓慢下行市场里才是最难受的。

总之，在最近2个月时间，很多标的会因为大波动，迎来不错的买入机会，包括汇率，股市等等，大家做好准备。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：

Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

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资本过山车，惊心动魄，各种闪崩再现。

先看澳洲，澳联储官员说圣诞节之前不会降息，我认为这是比较合理的。因为圣诞节是消费旺季，通胀在这个时候可能会小幅度上升，所以圣诞节之后降息，能够缓解通胀压力对于降息行为的冲击。所以，在圣诞节之前，我认为澳元大概率还会上涨一次，澳元兑人民币可能会重新回到4.75上方，这对目前的价格来说，前景不错。

需要换汇的朋友，或者所著锁住汇率波动的投资者，以及希望能够在澳元价值回升过程中获利的投机者，这三个月都是比较不错的机会，毕竟央行在兜底，澳洲大概率在美国降息之后再降息，逻辑上澳元反弹是大概率事件。

本次市场下跌最早的迹象出现于USDCHF这个产品，以及AUDJPY也产生了预警。为什么呢？因为瑞士法郎和日元有避险作用，它们的避险体现在Oled money那里，所以我们普通投资者不会通过这两个货币区去避险，而CHF瑞士法郎避险，主要对索罗斯，罗斯柴尔德这类欧洲老钱有需求，他们的诉求是，保持资产的实际购买力不变。所以，我们追求的是增值，大幅度增值，他们追求的是，是国际社会中的购买力保值，并不是在某一个国家和地区的相对保值。所以，CHF的异动，从一周前就开始发生了。

这幅图是NZDCHF这个产品，从1980年的最高点2的汇率，跌到现在0.5，新西兰的实际购买力下降了75%。所以，如果欧洲的老钱，在1980年就很有的人，把钱换成了瑞士法郎，那么当时的100万瑞士法郎，只能换50万，到现在，可以换200万，相当于涨了4被倍购买力。这就是为什么，old money喜欢买入CHF的原因。对于AUDCHF，则更惨。澳元兑瑞士法郎在1980年，是2.5，目前只有0.55，跌幅比NZDCHF还要大，超过了75%。所以，对于百年以上的资本，他们更看重的，是长期的国际购买力保值。

根据Chatgpt简单的计算，澳元国际购买力下降了75%。那么为什么说一周前市场就出现了异动呢？是因为AUDCHF这类产品，从7.15日就开始下跌了，并且在8.1日之前，下跌幅度已经超过了5%，这对于货币对是比较少见的。

因此，这一次下跌，市场恐慌，我认为背后的推手，是欧洲的国际资本为主，他们在全球布局，以轻资产+杠杆的形式，游走于股市，汇市和债市，他们的出售手，往往伴随着，快速的波动，股汇债同时震动。不了解他们操作模式的朋友，可以看一下之前索罗斯的很多战绩。

还有一个因素可以验证这一逻辑，就是美国股市并没有太大波动，我认为这种波动幅度是相对正常且合理的，毕竟之前涨了老多老多倍，还不如人家回调么。加速回调，是一种智慧，能够快速释放紧张情绪，并且压缩降息来临可能造成的资产价格继续走向泡沫的概率。而美盘的时候，美国资本相对比较淡定，通过各类金融工具，做空保护，但是并没有继续空欢喜恐慌性砸盘，大部分的下跌，产生在澳洲时间段，也就是亚洲盘。

所以，抛售美国股票的，可能是因为日本央行加息准备撤退回到日本的国际资本和日本财团，他们要抓紧换日元，还钱去。所以，最近日元涨幅很大，很快，因为满了慢了，就会拜拜白白损失好多好多钱，他们跟日本银行借的，可不是几个亿这种，而是填很多很多零。所以，预期变了，风险结构变了，对于套息的资金和欧洲老钱们，他们的投资逻辑快速转变，造成了这次恐慌。因为他们的资金，需要真实在银行成交，而他们的量，是完全可以影响市场的，银行收到指令换汇，是必须要在指定时间换完的，所以，巨大的波动就演变成连锁反应。但是，我不认为这是坏事情，因为很多资产，不敢买，但是，现在给了机会，最简单的就是，澳元兑人民币，4.6附近和以下的位置，长期看，就是财富大礼包。祝愿大家投资顺利。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：

Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

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昨天才刚刚是周一，但是澳洲的股市几乎已经要疯了。说实话，周一通常大家都比较忙，我一顿瞎忙直接忽略看市场，直到下午同事过来和我说，日本熔断了，我还很惊讶？难道日本又地震了？还是出意外了？一问，没有天灾，也没有意外，就是纯纯的一个暴跌。很单纯，不靠灾难，不靠意外。日经指数暴跌12.4%，直接触发熔断保护机制。澳洲股市从上周五到本周一两天一共下跌6%，创下2020年疫情结束以后最大2天下跌记录。美股在昨晚肯定日子也不会好过到哪里去？

那这到底是什么原因导致了这大规模的下跌呢？总结来说就是两个原因：这个原因，和那个原因。开个玩笑。其实现在说原因，都是马后炮。但是我们还是要简单装模做样分析一下的，毕竟世界各国各大银行证券机构都分析了，咱们也要跟一下的。我简单看了一下，各国媒体给出的原因大概有以下几个：1. 日本央行加息去杠杆，导致日元连续升值，那传统之前在日本借钱，放去美国或其他国家国家存定期买国债，不但赚利息差还能赚日元贬值的钱收益率会大幅下跌，甚至会开始亏。2. 美国股市在过去12个月的疯狂上涨，期间过程里没有有效的回调来释放筹码和压力。导致大家都在大的回调只是一个时间问题。3. 巴菲特在周末公布的最新持仓报告里显示其大量卖出美股股票，换成现金持有，使得很多投资者跟风交易。总结来说，其实这次下跌我认为就是一个正常的获利出逃以后的大回调。我们知道美股在过去10个月已经连续上涨超过30%了。中间仅仅有过1周左右的小回调，但是不论是时间还是幅度，都不能算一个合适的回调。因此上周五发布的美国非农就业数据不理想其实就是一个借口。用这个新闻来炒作美国衰退概念，从而触发出逃和回调。毕竟没有哪个股市可以永远不变一直上涨的。之前上涨的人需要有借口和理由卖出套利。原来没有来得及买入的人需要等待机会可以进场。机构需要话题，市场需要变化，如果这个市场永远就是一个方向上涨，停，再上涨，那就没有新意了。只有出现大回调之后，才能有下一次更高的上涨。就像拳击手一样，一次出拳之后，需要把手收回来，才能有下一次的进攻。

所以，这次的下跌在我看来就如同是长期天晴，好不好？好，长期暴晒会导致土地干旱，河流枯竭，空气干燥，皮肤晒伤。我们需要下雨来调节湿度，需要下雨来滋润土地，需要下雨来降低气温，需要下雨来给心情一些音乐。所以，别怕，跌跌更健康。好了，本篇完。但是篇幅有点短，那只能再加点个人干货：说说暴跌之后意味着什么。我一般不喜欢废话太多，昨天我看了很多英文媒体的文章，不知道他们是不是按照字数支付稿费，反正就是废话多。我喜欢开门见山，简单直接：暴跌之后，美联储要开紧急会议了，大家推测，如果再跌2、3天，美国可能9月会直接加息0.5%。来提振股市和经济信心，因为就周五一个非农就业人数，就突然搞得市场风向马上变了，说美国经济有可能不行了，要衰退了，要这，要那了。往轻了说，这就是纯粹的欲加之罪，何患无辞。这大家等回调等的望穿秋水，好不容易抓到一个坏消息，那不得使劲用。但是另一种阴谋论的说法，就是说过去20年来，每次美联储要降息之前，美股都会很“懂事”的暴跌，要不然，不下跌，留出空间来，怎么能证明美联储降息以后起到了表率作用呢？因此如果9月要降息了，那8月赶紧的表现表现。但是对于咱们澳洲的朋友们来说，日本熔断，澳洲暴跌，其实从另一个方向考虑，并不是坏事。哪个方向呢？—— 从你的房贷月供来考虑。我们知道前几周，澳洲市场都在传言说澳洲物价太贵了，所以还有可能要加息。我已经多次反驳，这基本不可能。澳洲联邦政府都作弊也要降物价了，央行还会这么傻吗？极大概率是不会的。在昨天暴跌之后，ASX的央行降息概率已经从之前的5%可能性提高到了20%，虽然依然概率极低，但是也说明市场判断，股市下跌会加速央行的货币宽松政策到来的时间。

但是经过上周五和昨天这一波下跌，如果本周再来上个几天暴跌，那基本上澳洲是99%不会加息了。毕竟本来澳洲央行还觉得澳洲经济比老美健康多，挺得住再来一次加息。但是如果股市一周暴跌10%，那要是止不住，整个国家的经济都得嗝屁。所以如果把股市暴跌，和物价压不下去来对比重要程度的话。那毫无疑问，澳洲央行会把稳定股市放在压倒性的地位上。而会伤害股市的加息计划，就自然会不再考虑。所以今天咱们话题总结：日本熔断了，澳洲暴跌了，美国也要大回调了。怎么办？不用害怕，这只是一个本应该早就来的回调。只有充分，有效的回调了，才会有更多资金进场，股市才会继续上新高。第二，欧美股市的暴跌，将会再次压低澳洲加息的可能性。如果说本来还有20%可能性会加息的话，现在一暴跌，估计95%肯定不会加息了。其实从澳元债券的收益率，以及澳元和美元的表现来看，市场现在已经觉得，澳洲加息是几乎不可能了，如果下跌继续，那降息将会来的更快。

多说一句，一个标准，正常，充分的回调，永远不可能一步到位，一天暴跌就完了。这肯定是一个先暴跌，再反弹，再更多暴跌，如此反复2-3次之后才能充分到位。所以现在市场还在寻找底部，在底部确认之前，大家不要着急。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：

Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监