市场新闻与洞察

A written trading plan, usually comprising of several guiding action statements, serves the following two invaluable purposes: Facilitates consistency in trading action e.g. in the entry and exit of trades, allowing the trader AND Measures the strategy used specified within each statement to make an evidence-based judgement on how well these are serving you and test and amend these statements so you can develop an individual trading plan that may work better for you. Let’s move past the fact that many traders choose not to have a plan at all, an approach that goes against what is one of the key components of giving yourself the chance to become a successful trader, to those who have a plan in place already. This article is targeted a those who have made the logical choice to have some sort of written plan in place.

Great though having a plan is, many traders still have issues with the two purposes outlined above. They still fail to some degree to develop the consistency described and are not really able to measure effectively. A common problem, if we look closely at some of the plan statements used, is that such statement may not be specific enough, have some ambiguity, that means that those purposes may be difficult to achieve.

Let’s provide and work through an example for clarity. Consider the following statement… “I will tighten my stop/trailing stop prior to significant, imminent economic data releases” Firstly, on the positive side again, this does demonstrate an awareness of potential risk and a desire to have something within your plan to manage this risk. However, in terms of being a measurable statement that you can make a judgement as to how well this approach is serving you, there are the following issues: What does ‘tightening’ mean in practical terms in relation to current price point of the pair you are trading?

How close to a data release is ‘imminent’? What constitutes a significant data release (amongst the many that are released daily)? So, to take the previous example consider the following as an alternative: “Prior to imminent economic data releases, I will tighten of a trail stop loss for any open trades, 15 minutes prior to the release and to within 10 Pips of the current price.

This will be actioned for the following data points: Interest rate, CPI, industrial production and jobs data from the country of either currency pair (or Germany, France of across the Eurozone if one of the currency pair is the EURO). US and Chinese PMI manufacturing data, GDP, industrial jobs and interest rate decisions as these may impact all currency majors." So, with THIS amended plan statement the following elements could be measured (if journaled appropriately of course): What would the difference be in your trading outcomes if: No tightening had been actioned. If a different proximity to current price is used e.g. 15 rather than 10 Pips.

If other data releases are added/removed. With this level of measurement, possible with the revised statement, one would now be able to make any changes, backed up with evidence, to your trading plan. Alternatively, of course, you could make the choice to do nothing, retain statements such as the original, and not have the ability to create the richness of evidence to make considered amendments to your plan.

Logically ask yourself the question, "which choice is more likely to serve my trading going forward?"

When digging deeper into issues relating to trading precious metals you may come across the idea of using gold to silver ratios as part of decision-making. This brief article explores what this means both in terms of definition and potential implications for traders. What is the Gold-Silver Ratio?

The direction and degree of movement in the two key precious metals occurs “in synch” i.e. when one moves so does the other similarly. However, the exact rate of this movement over a period may differ, and it is this that attracts the attention of some precious metal investors. The gold-silver ratio is simply the amount of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold.

If the spot price of gold is $1403 with silver at $15.3, the approximate ratio is 92:1. When considering this information, the respective prices of each are considered irrelevant; it is this ratio that attracts some attention for the most avid of precious metals investors. Rather, it is a potential indicator as to which precious metal is more likely to yield a greater return if taking a “long” position (or vice versa).

Historically throughout the 20th Century, this ratio has been reported at an average of 47:1, so theoretically the current ratio is low for silver value than traditionally has been the case. There does not appear to be a strict defined range what is normal and what is high or low, but some consensus internationally suggests that between 40-70 could be a normal range, and outside of this can be considered either high or low, and so may correct according to a movement back within the ‘normal’ range. Theoretically, the implications of this are when making a choice to trade either gold or silver, if this ratio is high then it would suggest that silver CFDs may have more positive % move potential, and if low, then gold may be more worthy of your choice.

It is also noteworthy that generally, when one explores research on this topic, that it is for possible use by those taking longer term positions (i.e. using daily/weekly charts for decision making) rather than short-term price fluctuations you may see on an intraday chart. The reality in your trading As previously stated, this seems to be something of interest to the major “gold bugs”, and there is widespread variance in thinking on this topic. The inference by some is that fluctuations in the ratio may help in the choice as to whether long term gold or silver.

So, as with much that is “out there” this may in part inform trading decision making at any level, the onus as to whether this has relevance in your practical trading of course rests with you. Our aim of this article was to put the concept out there so you can do your own research and make the choice as to relevance for you and as importantly how you may integrate it with other factors you use in your entry and exit decisions. We often discuss commodity CFDs as part of the ‘Market Watch’ section of the FREE weekly GO Markets Inner Circle webinars.

If you are interested in joining us as we look at the market and of course provide on-going education go to https://www.gomarkets.com/au/inner-circle and join us.

To begin the week, I thought we'd do something a little bit different. We have taken the current ten-year challenge sweeping social media and tried to apply it to a brief technical analysis summary of the major FX pairs. Where were they trading in early 2009?

And where are they now? Judging by the list below, it would seem gold wins the gold medal regarding overall performance. The following summaries will delve further into each trading pair.

EURUSD Even though current price action is trading just above the 200 MA suggesting the longer-term trend is bullish, the price action since 2009 provides more significant evidence of a strong downtrend in place, most notably the lower highs witnessed in 2009, 2011, 2014 and last year respectively. Following the rather dull consolidative period between 2015 to 2017, the Euro-Dollar pair has shown a new lease of life and has found the 1.25 level to play a significant role once again. At current levels though, the danger here is that we could slip back into the familiar rangebound territory if the supportive structure seen at 1.14 fails to contain sellers going forward.

The highlighted head and shoulders pattern might be a precursor to a EURUSD reversal back towards the 1.05 lows. GBPUSD Surprisingly, only a 5% difference in value since this time ten years ago. We see mostly rangebound moves since 2009, with the Brexit catalyst in 2016 providing fuel for an extended step down in price.

The recovery from 2017 to the beginning of 2018 may give a clue to future movements within the pair. Notice how the price has respected the 200 MA in recent years, it would appear the region of 1.35 could be a potential barrier if tested, resulting in a continuation of the longer-term downtrend. In this scenario, the previous 1.20 support is a target worth considering.

USDJPY In 2009 the Dollar-Yen pairing appeared somewhat heavy towards the downside. However, we've seen a steady recovery since the 2012 lows, and a validated bullish trendline is currently in play. In December last year, price attempted a sharp move down to 104 levels but was quickly rejected, resulting in further Dollar strength.

Key areas to note are the Fibonacci retracements of the 2015 high including the 50% level which has provided strong support around 100.00 and the 23.6% retracement at 113.80 which continues to act as tough resistance. Perhaps we'll see another rally north to re-test 113.80 longer-term, especially when RSI (Relative Strength Index) levels are looking oversold. AUDUSD Like a boomerang that's been thrown and come back, the Aussie has returned to where it began in 2009 following some large swings higher.

Currently, in a residual downtrend, it's difficult to see where this pair may up longer-term, but the key takeaway over the last decade would be the importance of the 0.70 zone regarding support and resistance levels. USDCAD It is also a case of 'Back To The Future' for the Loonie. Despite some significant price moves over time, current levels are almost identical to those seen this time ten years ago.

Technically still within a longer-term uptrend, price action has maintained a presence around the 200 MA and has produced a textbook series of higher highs and lower lows since mid-2017. It is also worth pointing out that the 50% retracement level near the 1.20 mark has provided strong support for the pair in both 2015 and 2017. The future outlook appears to be indecisive moves heading sideways.

USDCHF Not too much change for the Swissie either since 2009. Following the SNB crisis in 2015, price action has been practically non-existent with 1.03 acting as somewhat of a ceiling slowly squeezing the price into submission. We could either see a massive breakout after this extended consolidation phase or perhaps more of the same longer-term.

NZDUSD An impressive 36% gain since 2009. Longer-term we have settled around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the Jun 2014 high. Current levels also coincide with the 200 Moving Average which price action has failed to break above in recent years convincingly.

There is still a slight bias to the downside, and the previous support level of 0.62 could be a potential target should the Kiwi Dollar continue to grind lower. XAUUSD An impressive price rise in the last decade for the precious metal, and similar to Kiwi Dollar, current price action is sitting around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the August 2011 high. The overall longer-term trend has been sideways since 2013 with no clear directional bias in sight.

The only thing worth noting here is the current RSI situation which appears overbought and could spell some bearish activity in the weeks and months ahead. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. For more resource on Forex trading check out our Forex Trading For Beginners introduction, Forex Trading Courses, open a Forex Demo Account or open a live Forex Trading Account. Sources: Go Markets MetaTrader, Google, Datawrapper, Tradingview.

GDP Dominance The United States dominates the world when it comes to having the largest economy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), however, there are countries around the world which are showing major signs of economic growth and expected to overtake current world economic leaders, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. As mentioned above, the United States has the largest GDP in the world at around $19 trillion, followed by China and Japan at $11 and $4 trillion respectively according to the figures for 2017. However, looking to the future there are some economies that are expected to expand dramatically, and we can take a look at them in this article.

China Capital: Beijing Population: 1.4 billion (18.% of the world total) Official language: Standard Chinese Currency: Renminbi (CNY) Summary Even though the Chinese economy is already the second largest in the world, it is expected to grow even further over the next decade. China’s GDP has grown from around $4.5 trillion in 2008 to $12.2 trillion last year, a 166% increase over the last 9 years. And according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), one of world’s biggest professional service companies, China’s GDP is expected to grow to $38 trillion by 2030, making it the largest economy in the world.

India Capital: New Delhi Population: 1.3 billion (17% of the world total) Official language: Hindi Currency: Indian Rupee (INR) Summary India’s economy was 6th largest in the world at $2.5 trillion. Since 2008, Asia’s 3rd largest economy has expanded by around 110% from $1.1 to $2.5 trillion. It is expected to grow further to $19.5 trillion, according to PwC overtaking the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan – making it the third largest economy in the world by 2030.

Indonesia Capital: Jakarta Population: 266 million (3.5% of the world total) Official language: Indonesian Currency: Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Summary The Indonesian economy is currently 16th largest in the world at just over $1 trillion. It has nearly doubled since 2008. The South East Asian countries economy is projected to expand to around $5.4 trillion making it world’s 5th largest economy by 2030 overtaking United Kingdom and Germany.

Brazil Capital: Brasilia Population: 210 million (2.8% of the world total) Official language: Portuguese Currency: Brazilian Real (BRL) Summary Brazil is currently the world’s 8th largest economy at $2 trillion GDP in 2017. South America’s largest economy has experienced a steady growth since 2008 when it’s GDP was at $1.6 trillion. Brazil is expected to overtake countries like France and the United Kingdom by 2030 when its economy is projected to expand to around $4.4 trillion.

Mexico Capital: Mexico City Population: 130 million (1.7% of the world total) Official language: Spanish Currency: Mexican Peso (MXN) Summary Mexico’s economy has expanded by around 3% since 2008 and is currently the world’s 15th largest economy. However, its economy is expected to grow drastically over the coming years to around $3.6 trillion according to the projection making it the 9th largest economy in the world by 2030. By Klāvs Valters ( Market Analyst) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.

They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: PwC, World Bank and Google Maps

Trading Share CFDs gives you exposure to the movement of underlying shares. There are a few issues that are specific to Share CFDs and differ from for example trading Forex or commodity CFDS. One of these issues is that of company dividends.

This article aims to clarify the potential impact of dividends of the CFD trader. How do dividends work? One of the attractive things as a shareholder is the receipt of company dividends.

Many Australian companies pay such dividends twice a year, calculated at X cents/per share multiplied by the number of shares held. The key date in respect of dividend entitlement is the ex-dividend date, with eligibility for the dividend being dependent upon you holding a position in that share before trading commencing on the “ex-dividend” date. These dates, and the dividend amount per share, are pre-determined by the company and are made available in the public domain (usually confirmed in company reports) and are available across many financial websites.

Also, important to understand is this dividend is “priced in” to the share already the underlying share price is expected to open at closing price minus the dividend paid (of course there are other factors pre-open e.g., economic news overnight, which will also impact but in this article we are focusing on the dividend impact). Hence if the dividend per share is 20c then we would expect the underlying share to open 20 cents lower. CFDs and dividends As a CFD trader, you do not own the underlying asset (in this case the shares), rather you have a contract based on the movement of such and hence you will not be able to receive any benefits of “franking credits’ for tax purposes.

However, there is an adjustment made on your CFD account position relating to dividend. Whether this adjustment is shown as a credit or a debit will be dependent on the direction of your trade. Long trades will attract a credit and short trades a debit adjustment.

A dividend trading strategy There are some traders of shares, options and CFDs that look to develop a specific trading strategy for dividends and CFDs. Generally, this involves entering a long position prior to the ex-dividend date and subsequently selling afterwards looking for either a small drop less than the dividend adjustment or a recovery or greater move higher than the price prior to the ex-dividend date. Theoretically, the reverse could also be the case in that a short trade is entered, with the perception that many will sell after the ex-dividend date, once a dividend has been received, to the extent that this drop will exceed the dividend adjusted debit to the CFD position.

In either case, if you are considering these somewhat advanced strategies, logically you have tested a system which not only identifies potential situations but guides your entry and exit timing and decision-making. Further discussion on this may be included in a further article. We trust that has clarified the dividend treatment of Share CFDs and of course please contact our team with any further questions you may have, or if learning to trade share CFDs could be for you.

There are few long-term successful traders that at some stage have not suffered a major capital drawdown on their account at some stage. For whatever the reason the major factor as to whether you continue and get back to “winning ways” or continue to see further drawdowns is what you do next. Unfortunately, there are “traps” that such a set of circumstances can lead to, your aim, if this should happen to you is to avoid these.

This article aims to outline these to assist in developing awareness and assist in your “what happens next” thinking and actions. Trap 1 – Abdicate responsibility It is a natural human response when things go wrong to look for someone/something to blame. This is far easier emotionally to deal with than admitting that you have behaved, through actions, in a way that has contributed to a negative outcome.

Although it may be true that certain market conditions, or “trump tweets”, or economic announcements may all contribute to a significant market price movement, the majority of major capital drawdowns in reality occur over a number of trades and of course you have made the choice to trade and as if not more importantly when to exit any trades you have taken. The reality is of course, that unless you accept 100% that trading action is YOUR choice and that YOU are responsible for your trading results then you are unlikely to move forward and may indeed see further capital drawdowns on your trading account. Accepting this reality, gives you the drive to avoid the other potential traps and put the right things in place to reduce the likelihood of it happening again.

Trap 2 – Fail to explore WHY it happened? Beyond accepting responsibility one of your first tasks is to examine potential and subsequently actual factors that may have contributed. Commonly these can all come under the following: a.

You didn’t know what you were doing due to a knowledge gap b. You didn’t have an evidence-based (i.e. you have tested it and refined accordingly) specific comprehensive trading plan that guided your actions c. You didn’t follow your trading plan d.

Your trading system is comprehensive and sufficiently specific but doesn’t work and needs reviewed i.e. a new set of entry/exit criteria The temptation is, and many traders will go straight to ‘d’ of the above, but again arguably there is an element of “finger pointing” rather than taking responsibility. The reality is that of the four factors above the latter is the most unlikely cause. Being honest in your review is critical.

Such an honest review will give you clear guidance on which factor(s) you should focus on working on. Trap 3 – ‘Revenge’ trading Although this is a term bandied around frequently, let us delve beyond the ‘beermat psychology’ and look a little closer at what this may mean. In essence, the underlying emotional motivation is to get back to where you were before in terms of your account capital.

Commonly this thinking is backed by “desperation”, subsequently influencing actions that often bear little resemblance to good trading practice. In action, you may see: • Taking trades when there is no clear set up • Partial or complete ignoring of any trading plan • Inappropriate actions further trades go against you (e.g. finding reasons to stay in future trades when there is an exit) • Trading higher position sizing that you previously had • Trading each small market move, taking a reverse position even on a trend pause. • Looking to trade tighter and tighter timeframes These of course may significantly contribute to further losses as this emotional rather than system- based trading takes a stronger and stronger hold on your actions. Logically, the following may be more appropriate: • Give yourself some breathing space to properly review …STOP trading while you complete this (As described above) • Although easy to say and not so easy to accept the reality is that your account capital is what it is now, not what it was.

There was, for many in this situation, a time in your trading where whatever your capital level, your aim was to increase whatever that level was and put actions in place to give yourself the best chance of that happening. Ultimately, even if you strayed from this, developing consistency in appropriate trading plan actions and measurement are accepted by most traders as the way to make this happen over time. So, you need to press the “RESET button”, accept it as it is, and have the goal that through returning to that good trading practice consistently, and filling the gaps you need to.

Making this your goal rather than a dollar figure, may give yourself the chance to build capital not just to its previous level but beyond. Let it go! And do the right things from here I guess is the bottom-line message.

Trap 4 – Position size according to your previous rather than current account level This final trap for discussion in this article may seem obvious on the surface, but may either be a symptom of the previous point or something that is overlooked (unless of course inappropriate position sizing was one of the root causes of a major drawdown which you will discover in your review). It is crucial, and hence why we make special reference to it here, that you have a set risk level, usually expressed as a % of your account capital. This will differ from trader to trader but is comply between the 1-3% level as an example.

This determines lot/contract size (dependent on what you are trading) for any individual trade and combined with “stop loss” placement is a critical part of your risk management now and going forward. You need to recalculate what this is for you with reference to your NEW account size and factor this into your decision making, even if this means you are trading smaller amounts for now. In summary, major trading drawdowns are upsetting, and although not common often create additional ‘traps’ which may worsen what has happened to your trading capital.

And finally... Although perhaps of little consolation that many, many traders who now have sustained success, will have gone through this like you, the difference between what happens next and for your trading account in years to come, to your account is likely to be as a result of what you do next. You have choices to make but avoiding the above four traps described may perhaps assist in ultimately getting to where you want to be with your trading going forward.